Why You Shouldn’t Wager on These MLB Teams In 2019

By Noah Davis
Published on March 10, 2019
Betting on MLB teams in 2019

With the 2019 MLB season arriving in roughly a month, MLB bettors will want to start planning out how they’ll be wagering this year.

That understandably plays into MLB Division odds, betting on the 2019 World Series winner, and daily baseball betting. Futures and props arguably leave the door cracked open to virtually anything.

Depending on the bet and the price, most options at least have a case. Flier bets are welcomed in the sports betting world, but the daily grind is all about sustainability.

There is absolutely a place for MLB upset picks, but you don’t want to force it, and the timing and situation should be perfect. For the most part, though, I’d personally suggest staying away from a handful of teams.

Betting on the best MLB teams doesn’t offer much value, but doing that and sprinkling in some intermediate value is probably the best route to go on a regular basis. Upsets are worth chasing, but confiding in terrible teams typically is a good way to lose money in a hurry.

Here are four MLB teams that would be best off left avoided in baseball betting circles this year.

Baltimore Orioles

I know it’s easy to kick the O’s while they’re down, but they really don’t have much upside for bettors going into 2019.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way; Baltimore went a disgusting 47-115 during the 2018 MLB season. That included just 28 wins in front of their home crowd, while the Orioles were even worse (19-62) on the road.

It’s unlikely any of that changes too much.

Not only are the Orioles lacking impact stars (they traded away Manny Machado and others last year), but they’re rebuilding with young talent and inefficient veterans that will likely be dealt eventually.

They’re also stuck in the AL East, where two heavy-hitters in the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox reside. Tampa Bay and Toronto aren’t exactly elite, but both look a heck of a lot better than the O’s do.

Baltimore’s offense was pretty potent just a couple of years ago, but it wasn’t very efficient. It tailed off horribly last year, and with weak pitching backing the offense, the O’s were an easy target for bettors. That’s fully expected to be the case again this year.

Baltimore carries league-worst +50000 World Series odds into the new season. I wouldn’t place that bet, and I also wouldn’t plan on backing the O’s for many big upset picks.

Kansas City Royals

I don’t think I’d feel great about putting serious money on the Royals to do anything of merit in 2019, either. Kansas City has endured quite the free fall over the last couple of years, considering they were a World Series champion in 2015.

Three years later, most of their star talent is gone, and they’re one of the worst teams in the league. Kansas City simply lacks pop and efficiency on offense, while their pitching has eroded considerably.

Danny Duffy is probably KC’s best pitcher, but when he’s not dialed in, he can get shelled as much as anyone. From top to bottom, the Royals are just not consistent and make for a very dicey play in MLB betting circles.

This team could steal some wins in the weak AL Central, but they won’t be a fun team to back on a regular basis, and they surely won’t get to another World Series anytime soon.

San Diego Padres

I’ll give credit to the Padres for making waves by . The former Orioles and Dodgers slugger can crank out homers and is an overall fantastic offensive player.

But he’s just one guy.

Machado ignites hope for a team that may slowly be on the rise, but his upside will be curbed quite a bit on a team that lacks reliable punch and plays half of their games in a ballpark that isn’t ideal for the long ball.

San Diego has some talent and one of the best farm systems in the majors right now. They even have some talented pitchers pushing into their rotation. But they’re not scary, and in a tough NL West, they’re not going to be competing for a playoff spot just yet.

I do think the Padres will be a bit better than expected, and on occasion, they’ll be a fun team to target for elite betting value. On the regular, however, they come off as a bit trappy.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins traded away all of their best players over the past two years, with Giancarlo Stanton and J.T. Realmuto most notably changing teams.

Miami was actually surprisingly competitive in a lot of their games in 2018 and somehow took down some tough aces, but they still went just 63-98.

Things shouldn’t get much better for the fish in 2019, as they lost talent and brought in an erratic veteran like Neil Walker. Seriously, he might be their best player now, and that’s a scary thought.

Walker does have some pop, and Lewis Brinson can smash the ball as well, but any power Miami’s offense produces will be curbed half the time due to their conservative home park.

Miami doesn’t have much pitching to get excited about, either. Jose Urena heads an underwhelming rotation that is deep in terms of balance but lacks anyone that really strikes fear into the opposition.

Bettors can shoot for the moon with Miami’s +25000 World Series odds at, but it’s beyond a dice roll.

Figuring out the appropriate time to bet on Miami during the regular season will be tough. Better just leave them alone.


I know, none of the aforementioned teams were great a year ago, and they don’t project to be much better in 2019. I’m not going out on a huge limb here, but I’m also not missing anything.

The casual bettor might look at the Manny Machado signing and think the Padres are ready for a big leap. Some people might feel like the Royals, Orioles, or Marlins could be sneaky and deserve some backing, too.

That just isn’t going to be the case.

Any of these teams can pay off in a big way if you hit them on the right night, as is the case with any MLB underdogs. However, they’re all pretty strong candidates to win 70 games or far fewer.

For the most part, steering clear of these four MLB teams is probably a good idea.

Why You Shouldn’t Wager on These MLB Teams In 2019
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Why You Shouldn’t Wager on These MLB Teams In 2019
Previewing the 2019 MLB betting season with a look at four baseball teams bettors shouldn’t be excited to spend money on.
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