UFC 211 Betting: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Jessica Andrade Odds and Pick
Published on February 27, 2017
The UFC is such a far thinking sport that the hype is already building around what could be a stacked UFC 211, yet we haven’t even reached UFC 209 yet.
It’s hard to slow the hype train down in this case, of course, as we get two massive title showdowns, with to defend his heavyweight belt against Junior Dos Santos and Joanna Jedrzejczyk against Jessica Andrade.
While the heavyweight bout between Miocic and Dos Santos is probably going to be the headlining act at UFC 211, it’s arguably many fans will be pining for the title battle on the female side of things. After all, Jedrzejczyk has given MMA fans their most dominant female champion since Ronda Rousey and there is that ever intense double-angle play here: either we get to see that dominance continue and the “unbeatable” chants run wild, or the giant finally falls.
Suffice to say, considering this strawweight bout isn’t even the top act at UFC 211, MMA fans are in for a fun one come Saturday, May 13th in Dallas, Texas:
Here we go❗️ on May 13th in Dallas Are you happy? …. …
— Joanna Jedrzejczyk (@joannamma)
Of course, this big question remains; is there an upset (or two) brewing here? Let’s find out by breaking down the strawweight bout between Jedrzejczyk and Andrade.
It’s always good to first pause, collect your breath and see what Vegas thinks. Hey, the oddsmakers correctly predicted the Cubs winning the World Series and the Patriots winning the Super Bowl, so the favorite doesn’t always tumble.
It will be interesting to see if that’s the case at UFC 211, where the undefeated Jedrzejczyk puts her title on the line. There aren’t any official betting lines out yet for Jedrzejczyk’s title defense, but we’ve got a line we like that you can probably bank on seeing at most UFC betting sites:
It’s quite possible some MMA betting sites will give Jedrzejczyk a bigger gap here, and if so, Andrade increasingly becomes a sneaky upset play. We need to pay mind to Jedrzejczyk’s dominance, however, so if the line is tight like this, laying down a big bet against the undefeated champion feels like a fool’s errand – at first glance, at least.
The case against really isn’t so much her talent, fighting style or her opponent heading into UFC 211. It’s just that eventually someone is bound to take her down. Not only do fighters rarely stay undefeated throughout their careers, but it’s increasingly more difficult to remain a champion when everyone else is vying for your spot.
With each successive fight, one way or another it feels like Jedrzejczyk is exposed just a little more, or her next opponent can find one thread of a weakness to pull that could lead to a big win. That unblemished (13-0) record gets shakier with each passing event and with each new challenger (Andrade will be the fifth), defending that title belt has to weigh more and more heavily.
Maybe that’s not the case. Maybe Jedrzejczyk is as raw, gritty and disciplined as she appears to be. Andrade looks like a stiff, battle tested challenge on paper, however, and if you’re pulling for the upset, it wouldn’t be all that shocking to get it.
Jedrzejczyk certainly has never looked all that imposing physically, but she’s as confident as any fighter and has been ridiculously tough for fighters to figure out. While she doesn’t convert on a ton of knockouts (just 4 career KOs) she does win largely with elite striking.
More than anything, however, Jedrzejczyk is a master of the grind and knows how to take a beating. She also works the canvas as well as anyone and displays strong defense and anticipation.
You can get the jist of it here, where you can see some of her vicious striking, her general tenacity and willingness to chase the knockout:
All of that has proven to be bad news for the best the strawweight class has had to offer, as Jedrzejczyk’s disciplined and balanced fighting style has led to four title defenses and a perfect 13-0 record as a pro.
The question is, how does Jessica Andrade matchup, and can she be the first UFC fighter to figure Jedrzejczyk out?
Andrade has certainly taken her lumps in her pro MMA career, but she’s largely cleaned up her mistakes lately, as she rides into UFC 211 on a three-fight winning streak. She’s a solid 4-2 over her last six bouts, too, with both of her most recent losses coming via submission to quality fighters like Raquel Pennington (just beat Miesha Tate) and the crafty Marion Reneau. One of her others losses came to the seasoned Liz Carmouche, too, so if you look back at Andrade’s record – and this is strictly the paper trail – it’s not like she’s been being dropped by scrubs.
She also isn’t being dropped by punches, either. Andrade is a vicious striker in her own right, but quite arguably even more impressive than her high level striking and aggressive nature is her ability to take a beating.
Andrade doesn’t just absorb blows, either. She takes on licks and keeps coming at you, hoping that whatever opening she gave you leads to an even bigger one for her. Her last fight was a brutal showdown with Angela Hill and that may best showcase her rage-filled striking ability, as well as her ridiculous toughness:
Those beatings have led to two KO losses in her career, but it’s pretty clear Andrade has developed a strong jaw over the years, as she hasn’t suffered a knockout loss of any kind since losing to Carmouche back in 2013.
Her aggressiveness has gotten her into trouble in the past by walking into some nasty strikers, but it also can rip her up on the ground, where two more of her losses have come via submission. That is probably Andrade’s most telling flaw in general, too, is that she is not as disciplined as you’d like and tends to be favoring the short game, chasing that KO.
The silver lining there, of course, is it’s not just about the knockout, as Andrade has an extremely versatile MMA skill-set and can work you to a pulp standing up or grind you out on the canvas (7 career submissions). That’s potentially bad news for Jedrzejczyk, who is a way more disciplined and a great defensive fighter, but will have to worry about a plethora of ending results in this title fight.
This is such an interesting fight, as we look at one fighter who usually fights so cleanly, picks her spots and has displayed elite striking and toughness, but will take on a fighter who might be a little more powerful, a little more aggressive and certainly more versatile.
The key will be gauging what wins out: preparation and execution or brute force and aggressiveness.
Andrade can match Jedrzejczyk with blows, which could put Jedrzejczyk on the defensive early. Then it could all depend on how aggressive she is and if she can get in enough quality shots to earn the Decision. Of course, what might be even more interesting is if Jedrzejczyk gets thrown off a bit by Andrade’s aggression and constant movement and suddenly finds herself in a sticky situation on the mat.
Ultimately, Jedrzejczyk can’t stay undefeated forever and constantly defending her title has to get tiresome. She’s a great fighter and could easily defend a fifth straight time here, but Andrade is so strong and tough that this could be where the mystique wears off.
Pick: Andrade via KO