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Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of May 14th – 5 Upset Picks for Bettors

By Noah Davis
Published on May 15, 2018
Demian Maia, Lebron James, Miami Marlins, Good Magic and Tampa Bay Lightning Logo

Another week of fun sports betting action is in the books, and as of May 14th, it may have just gotten a little sweeter.

There is a lot of overseas sports gambling and even more technically done illegally, but with a , there is light at the end of the tunnel for all American bettors.

That specifically applies to the 50 states, who finally have full say as to whether or not you can legally bet on sports. New Jersey is probably just days away from officially offering it, while a handful of states have legislation passed and will soon follow.

Before long, a good portion of the US will be offering in-person and possibly online and mobile sports wagering.

That bleeds into a brand new week of underdog sports picks. Bettors always want to chase a big win, but it’s even more fun when you can tack on some fat odds and eat up some elite value.

It’s not easy to figure out on a daily or even weekly basis, but I continue to offer up some of my favorite upset picks to help bettors in their plight.

All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from Bovada on 5/15/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

Week in Review

Let’s take a look at how I fared last week before I dish out a few more underdogs for the week of May 14th.

  • Pelicans over Warriors +550
  • Vitor Belfort over Lyoto Machida+215
  • Raquel Pennington over Amanda Nunes+635
  • Red Sox over Yankees Series Winner+160
  • Jets over Predators+135

As you can see, I went 1-4 in a pretty bad week for upset picks.

I took some big shots here, as Pennington was a huge underdog in the face of the nasty Nunes. before the final round, but I felt she was tough enough to potentially land the upset.

I’m starting to think Nunes may never lose again.

I also rolled with the Pels at +550 just because the value was ridiculous. Golden State and the rest of the NBA closed out their respective series, however, so there was no cash to be earned there.

Belfort was another viable MMA upset pick, but he got housed by Machida and .

The Red Sox offered sweet value as +160 series winners, but they went 1-2 against the Yankees. Close, but no cigar on that one.

The only win last week ended up being the Jets over the Predators.

They got solid value at +135 in a tense game seven setting on the road. That handed them a series win, and they now have a shot to reach the Stanley Cup Finals.

It wasn’t a great week, so I dropped to 9-15-1 overall with my upset picks on the year. It’s been a pretty rough start, but this is a friendly reminder that chasing only underdogs can be a risky proposition.

That being said, I’ve again got my eye on a few upset calls I think could be worth chasing. Let’s dive into this week’s upset picks.

2018 Preakness Stakes Winner – Good Magic (+350)

The first order of business for a lot of sports bettors should be gauging which horse they want to back at the 2018 Preakness Stakes.

Justify ran away with the Kentucky Derby win on May 5th, and Bob Baffert’s top colt will be back to win again on May 19th. You have less than one full week to dig your claws into some research, consider the odds, and place your final bets.

The odds greatly favor Justify here, and there aren’t too many stiff challengers, with Good Magic (+350) looking like the next best bet.

This is shaping up to be an 8-horse field, and considering you’ll have a 1-in-8 shot of staging a crazy upset, I absolutely think going after some type of an upset pick here makes sense.

Justify is my favorite horse here, but the odds elsewhere
are too much fun to completely ignore all the value at hand.

If Justify isn’t going to win this one, Good Magic feels like the second-best option to me. The odds certainly suggest that, but after finishing second at the Kentucky Derby, Good Magic has a real case here.

Good Magic has enjoyed high-level success before, too, nabbing big wins at the 2018 Blue Grass Stakes and last November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The talent and competitive edge Good Magic provides is worth chasing as a flier bet this week, and at +350, you’re getting pretty good odds at Bovada.

PICKGood Magic+350

Tampa Bay Lightning (+100) over Washington Capitals (-120) – Game 3

Game three of the Eastern Conference Finals goes down on Tuesday night in D.C., where the Capitals will look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Washington was the best team in hockey a season ago and have looked daunting so far in the playoffs. After taking out the defending champion Penguins last round, they’ve built a 2-0 series lead over the Lightning, using a superior defense and an explosive offense.

The Capitals are probably destined to win this series and attempt to complete the mission they started last year, but I think Tampa Bay has a little more fight than that.

More specifically, the Lightning has one of the more potent offenses in hockey, yet bettors haven’t seen it show up in this series. In a crucial game three that they absolutely have to have, I think the veteran Lightning will show up and produce on that end of the ice.

PICKTampa Bay Lightning+100

Cleveland Cavaliers (-105) over Boston Celtics (-115) – Game 2

LeBron James and co. were not even close to good enough in a crushing game-one loss on Sunday. On Tuesday night, King James will have to be much better as he leads the Cavs back into TD Garden to battle the Boston Celtics.

Boston has been impressive throughout their postseason run, but I just don’t buy them taking a 2-0 series lead. Cleveland is still the better overall team, and LeBron James isn’t about to be denied for two straight games.

This is a huge must-win game for the Cavs, as falling into a 2-0 hole simply isn’t an option. Fortunately, bettors are getting some solid value with Cleveland still being looked at as a mild underdog for some reason.

PICKCleveland Cavaliers-105

Demian Maia (+300) over Kamaru Usman (-400)

Two weeks ago, I nailed the Fedor upset call, but last week, I whiffed on both of my UFC upset picks.

I think there is some nice value again coming this weekend, where Demian Maia and Kamaru Usman will wage war at UFC Fight Night 129.

There’s no denying that Maia is headed in the wrong direction, as he’s dropped each of his last two bouts. In that same breath, those defeats came via decision against stout competition in Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington (4 shared losses).

Maia may be 40 years old, but he’s a nasty fighter with a dangerous ground skill-set (12 career submissions).

He’ll be facing a ferocious striker in Kamaru Usman, who has six KO wins under his belt and will be looking for another.

That puts Maia in a tough spot, but this guy has been KO’d once in his entire career, and that happened back in 2009. He’s very crafty and knows how to manipulate bouts to his advantage. That could be dangerous for Usman, whose lone loss came via a rear-naked choke in 2013.

Usman is dangerous and is in his prime, but Maia is not a guy to be taken lightly. I won’t be shocked at all if he delivers the huge upset with a sneak submission move.

PICKDemian Maia+300

Miami Marlins (+190) over Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) – Series Winner

Most of these upset picks can be found over at Bovada, but I also wanted to include an MLB series winner.

The one I really have my eye on for this week is the Marlins, who boast a really fun price at BetOnline. Usually I would never back Miami, but they’re at home, and they actually could offer a lot of value in a better-than-advertised matchup.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are pretty big in name after reaching the World Series last year, but they’ve been awful this year. Clayton Kershaw is currently hurt, Corey Seager is out for the year, and Justin Turner is still on the shelf.

At just 16-24, the Dodgers are in a bad way. Now they have to go on the road (8-11 outside of Dodger Stadium) and are not in a groove (lost four straight, 3-7 over their last 10 games).

This could be the perfect spot for the inferior Marlins to rise up and snag two wins in a best-of-three series.

Obviously, the Dodgers have more talent, and they will also be putting some solid pitching on the mound in a pitcher’s park. However, the fish have oddly been pretty good against tough pitching this year, and they also have some solid pitching of their own toeing the rubber in this series.

This is probably the riskiest upset pick on the board, but this is less about the Marlins and more about the Dodgers. Most bettors will blindly pay the -225 in what should be an easy series win for L.A., but given their form in 2018, I’m willing to roll the dice here.

PICKMiami Marlins+190

Summary

This week takes a mild step back as far as quantity with upset picks, but this still gives bettors five interesting options to consider.

Like I say every week, you shouldn’t rest solely on underdog picks to make your money in sports betting, and if you don’t love some of my picks, just keep hunting for the value that really stands out to you.

There are always big upsets in baseball and MMA, though, so those continue to be two great spots to consider chasing after each week.

Hopefully these picks lend some solid insight and help you win some cash this week. Whatever you end up deciding, I wish you luck in your sports betting endeavors!

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Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of May 14th - 5 Upset Picks for Bettors
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Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of May 14th - 5 Upset Picks for Bettors
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The weekly series continues with another look at some upset picks to target. There are five this week, spread across five different sports. I’ve looked at horse racing, baseball, hockey, basketball, and MMA.
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