Preview of the 2018 Fort Worth Invitational – My Matchup Picks
Published on May 23, 2018
I was wondering if the field would be any good this week. Then I latched onto and saw that world beaters Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler barely cracked the top 15!
Apparently, the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial Country Club has a bevy of world-class players set to tee it up on Thursday, and that means we have plenty of choices in the betting arena.
Bovada.lv took care of us by offering a decent-sized selection of bets, including some matchups that are piquing my interest.
It’s up to us to crack the code and figure out where the real value lies. In other words, which wagers have a higher likelihood of panning out than the odds that are attached indicate?
For example, last week, we were able to make some money on Keith Mitchell (+110) in his matchup against J.B. Holmes (-140) without a sweat. All you had to do was spend 5 minutes looking at recent form and a few key stats relevant to the course setup to realize that Mitchell was a shoe-in to pummel Holmes head-to-head.
I would have happily paid -115 or -120 for Keith last week in that matchup. When I see discrepancies that large, the obvious thing to do is pounce on the opportunity.
As far as this week goes, if I know one thing about the par-70 golf course in Fort Worth, it’s that you have to keep the ball in play off the tee. My two key stats to look out for are as follows.
There’s only two par 5s on the entire track, and the best way to attack the hole locations is to set up proper angles from the fairway.
The greens are tricky and extremely small, so I want to target guys with stout short games. Bombing the ball is great, but accuracy and wedge play is what is going to separate the contenders from the rest of the pack.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Last week, we rode Adam Scott’s hot ball striking into an easy matchup victory over Beau Hossler. This week, I’m jumping on the Aussie’s back once again because he did exactly what I anticipated at Trinity Forest, and then some.
Clearly, making the switch back to the long putter at THE PLAYERS started a fire in his belly, because he parlayed that 11th-place finish into a T-9th last week in Dallas. He has strung together some nice positive vibes and should ride the momentum right into play this week.
To be truthful, he was probably a bit disappointed with his finish when you consider just how good he struck the ball.
Not only did Adam lead the field in strokes gained (SG) from tee-to-green, but he also finished 2nd in strokes gained with his approach shots and was 3rd in SG around the green.
A small tweak with the flat stick at Colonial, and the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational winner (former name of this event) should be right in the mix come Sunday. As for Matt Kuchar, generally the epitome of consistent play…
Don’t get me wrong, the former Georgia Tech star is right on schedule to make his usual $4 million or so this season, but he’s actually in the midst of a “mini-slump,” if there ever was such a thing. Hear me out.
Since his last top 10 at the Houston Open on April 1st, Matt has played 6 events. Over that stretch, he’s logged just one top 20, a 17th-place finish at TPC Sawgrass. He even missed the cut just 45 miles down the road last week at Trinity Forest, admitting that .
I don’t expect the frustration to linger and think Kuchar is a good bet to get back to playing some good golf. I just think Adam’s current form is something that can’t be ignored, not at -115.
This is an interesting scenario, but see if you can get on board.
The whole point when betting sports is trying to spot value, right? I found something quite interesting that you might want to take note of. In Patrick Cantlay’s H2H matchup vs. Jimmy Walker this week, Cantlay is listed as a -140 favorite, while Walker is at +110.
So why is Walker listed at +2500 to win and Cantlay is +2800? Why is Jimmy +175 to finish in the top 10 and Patrick is +260?
One may point directly to the head-to-head matchup and think Jimmy at +110 is some amazing value. Quite frankly, with the way he is playing, it seems like a wonderful price. As much as I love Cantlay, it’s hard to ignore a +110 price tag when on paper it seems like this should be pretty even matchup. I feel like both players should be in the -110 or -115 range.
It almost seems too good to be true. It just doesn’t add up. But hey, my job is just to spot the value when it sticks out like a sore thumb.
What is intriguing to me is that I can get Cantlay at +260 to finish in the top 10 instead of only getting +175 for Walker.
Jimmy is playing some incredible golf right now, riding in on the heels of three straight top-6 finishes in individual stroke-play events. The Texas native knows how to play in his home state and is a great candidate to get into contention this week.
Meanwhile, the former UCLA Bruin seems to play good golf no matter where he plays and what the conditions are. Cantlay is nothing if not consistent. I guess when you have no holes in your game, good results tend to follow. So here’s a bonus pick for you.
While placing these two bets may seem like hedging against yourself, you actually could potentially win both bets and be swimming in cash. If you prefer to make just one of these two wagers, the good news is that you can’t really go wrong.
The probability that Jimmy beats Patrick this week warrants a bet at his +110 price tag. Likewise, given that Cantlay should be in the +200 to +220 range to finish in the top 10 based on the guys around him, his line of +260 is worth taking a serious look.
Based on the data in front us, in either case, you’ll be getting value. As a sports bettor, that’s all you can really ask for.
Jordan Spieth and Colonial Country Club; it’s like a match made in heaven. When you look at Jordan Spieth, and you try and find a golf course that suits his strengths, I’m not sure if there’s a better fit on tour than the John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell design in Fort Worth.
The hometown hero who grew up and made his residence nearby has an affinity for this golf course, as he has shown in previous years.
I mean, the dude has finished 2nd-1st-2nd in his last three appearances at Colonial and should be mentally rested after a “so-so” 21st-place showing a week ago.
If you remember at the top of the page, my two key stats for the week are and .
Well, Jordan is 4th and 3rd on the PGA Tour respectively in those two statistics, and I don’t have to tell you how hot he can get with the putter.
This isn’t about Jon Rahm, and don’t get it twisted – the Spaniard is an absolute stud and is a force to be reckoned with. But in a head-to-head matchup against the Golden Child who knows nothing but success here, I have no problem dishing out -140.
Rahm is uber-talented and could certainly win this week. But this is setting up too perfectly for Spieth. He’s -125 to finish in the top 10 in a 121-man field, and you can get -140 for him to beat a single opponent. Don’t overthink this one, and confidently wager your money on Spieth.
Profiting from sports betting is becoming increasingly difficult for the average bettor. The oddsmakers and casino operators are getting sharper and sharper as more data becomes available.
This means we have to work harder to spot value, and ensure we take advantage of any lines we don’t think are “properly priced.”
As someone who follows the PGA Tour closely and understands the ebbs and flows that the game brings, I feel like I can do a fairly good job at that. Hopefully it all pans out this week, and we can all turn a handsome profit.
With any questions or concerns, feel free to . Otherwise, I’ll see you back next week for some betting tips for Jack’s Tournament, the Memorial!