The Overwatch League Betting Tips and Match Predictions for Week 4
Published on January 31, 2018
The third week of the Overwatch League is over, and after a very dominant start from London Spitfire, Seoul Dynasty, and New York Excelsior, which hadn’t been beaten in their first two weeks, the rest of the teams have started to catch up and adapt to their strategies. As a result, during the third week of the Overwatch League, each of these three teams suffered their first defeat of the tournament. New York Excelsior lost against Philadelphia Fusion and London Spitfire lost against Boston Uprising, while . All of these matches were extremely close, ending with a 3-2 score.
With the next round of matches quickly approaching, here are the top predictions and the Overwatch teams you should be betting on for week 4:
Los Angeles Valiant has had a pretty good run so far, losing just two matches. These losses came against two of the strongest teams in the league (New York Excelsior and London Spitfire), and the second defeat was actually very close (score 2-3). Furthermore, the team’s victories against the lesser teams were pretty convincing.
So overall, they’ve predictably failed and succeeded based on the strength of their opponent, which makes them a great team to bet on. The only question is: are they weaker or stronger than their opponent (in this case, Philadelphia Fusion)? And to answer that question, let’s take a quick look at Philadelphia Fusion.
They’ve had 4 wins and 2 losses so far, just like Los Angeles Valiant. However, two of their victories came against very strong opponents (New York Excelsior [5W – 1L] and Huston Outlaws [4W – 2L]). This proves they have a high ceiling. And even though some of their wins against the lesser teams have been unconvincing, when they played against top opponents, they always delivered.
Philadelphia Fusion won their last two matches, and one of them was against New York Excelsior. So, team morale is definitely high, and they surely are on an upward trend. All of these things make them a perfect team to bet on, especially given the bookies’ assessment. Bovada puts the odds at -175/+120, or around 1.50/2.35 in Los Angeles Valiant’s favor. That assessment would be correct if you only looked at the overall statistics (Los Angeles Valiant has won more maps than Philadelphia Fusion so far). But if you put things in context and also take current team form into account, the assessment is automatically reversed.
Based on the two teams’ previous results, Philadelphia Fusion is extremely likely to win this dispute and produce an upset.
This should be a relatively easy victory for Los Angeles Gladiators. Even though the win/loss ratio between the two teams is similar, a careful analysis of their performance throughout the tournament emphasizes a big strength difference between them. A bet on this match would definitely be worthwhile, as the likelihood of success is extremely high but the odds are still good enough to make a decent profit: -375/+230 or around 1.27/3.30 (source: Bovada) in Los Angeles Gladiators’ favor.
Houston Outlaws are likely to win this one without dropping a single map. Their last 3 matches ended with a 4-0 victory in their favor, so I’m not expecting them to lose against a much weaker team such as San Francisco Shock.
Philadelphia Fusion is the clear favorite for this dispute, and the chance of an upset is very low. In fact, Dallas Fuel isn’t likely to win more than 1 map.
This will be an entirely one-sided affair, with 4-0 for New York Excelsior almost for sure.
Statistics slightly favor Seoul Dynasty for this match. In principle, they should be able to beat London Spitfire, considering the results from week 3.
These two teams are of roughly the same strength, so a bet on either of them might be risky. If you want to bet on this match, do it after the end of these teams’ first match scheduled for week 4. Florida Mayhem will be battling Los Angeles Gladiators, while San Francisco Shock will be fighting against Houston Outlaws. Based on those performances, you’ll have a better idea of who you should bet on.
Seoul Dynasty is a considerably better team but is only slightly favored to win this match, due to Huston Outlaws’ recent form.
Boston Uprising is very likely to win this match. As their last two victories against London Spitfire and Dallas Fuel proved, they are at the top of their game right now and should have no problem crushing a significantly weaker team such as Los Angeles Gladiators.
This will be another one-sided match, with the likelihood of an upset being below 1%. A 4-0 victory for London Spitfire is almost a certainty for this match.
New York Excelsior should easily take this match, either 4-0 or 3-0.
Based on the leaderboards statistics, Los Angeles Valiant is stronger. But the chance of an upset is quite high, due to the fact that Boston Uprising has a lot of momentum right now. They won both of their matches during the third week of the Overwatch League, and they clearly changed something about their playstyle. Defeating a team like London Spitfire is no easy feat.
This is the perfect type of match to bet on when using an esports betting strategy that relies on upsets. Most people will assume that Los Angeles Valiant is a much stronger team, not taking into account the shifts and changes that have taken place recently. As a result, betting on Boston Uprising will yield a much greater potential reward.