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NFL Saturday & Sunday Gameday Breakdown: Week 16

By Paul Wilson
Published on December 21, 2016
Seattle Seahawks NFL Player Rushing

The final two weeks of the NFL season are upon us, which is good news for football fans. Week 16 generally provides some of the most exciting games of the entire season, as playoff dreams are made or dashed in almost every matchup.

In the case of 2016/17, there are only three Week 16 games that have absolutely no impact on the playoff picture. In addition, of the 16 games to be played in Week 16, 11 of the games are divisional matchups, which usually indicates a 60-minute dogfight.

In addition, of the twelve eventual playoff teams, only four have already secured their playoff spots: the Patriots, Cowboys, Raiders, and Seahawks. This means that there are eight playoff spots up for grabs between thirteen different teams that each have better than 1-to-8 odds to make the playoffs.

With the increasing parity in the league, as well as with two teams in 2016/17 that combine for one win between them, it’s little surprise that there would be so many teams with their playoff hopes still alive. In addition, with Week 16 falling on the Christmas weekend, and specifically with games on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, there will be fun to be had for both football fans and gamblers alike.

We’ve got you covered with a full preview of the entire NFL.

Below you’ll find each division, listed by standings, with their record, their matchup, the gambling odds of that matchup, playoff percentage, the playoff implications of the game, as well as our quick tips for where the team is trending and how you should bet.

PLEASE NOTE

Chances of making the playoffs/winning the division/getting a first round bye are taken from , and are based on a prospectus that aggregates 100,000 simulations of how the rest of the season will play out, and which is updated after every game.


Gambling odds are taken from the sportsbook at Bovada.

Preview:

  • Giants ATS (-3, -105) and moneyline (-150)
  • Under for Giants/Eagles (41.5, -110)
  • Under for Ravens/Steelers (44, -110)
  • Under for Broncos/Chiefs (37.5, -110)
  • Ravens ATS (+5, -110)
  • Bears moneyline (+150)
  • Two-team teaser with Falcons/Panthers over with Packers/Vikings under
  • Dolphins ATS (+3.5, -110) and moneyline (+165)
  • Bucs ATS (+3, -120) and moneyline (+130)
  • Ravens moneyline (+200)

NFC North

Detroit Lions9 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 EST Monday, 12/26/16
Spread
+4.5 (-105)
Moneyline
+164
Over/Under
Over 41.5 (-105), Under 41.5 (-115)
Chances of Winning Division
59%
Postseason Prospectus
The NFC North saw a big shake-up last week, with the Packers beating the Bears and both the Lions and Vikings losing. This meant that the Lions have gone from a two-game lead over the Packers for the division down to a one-game lead, and saw their chances of winning the division decrease by 17%. All signs point to the NFC North being decided in Week 17 when the Packers come to Ford Field, and if the Lions don’t win one of these last two remaining games, there’s a good chance they could miss the playoffs altogether.
Gambling Advice
The Lions’ loss last week had less to do with Matthew Stafford’s dislocated finger than it did with the Lions’ inability to play against good teams over the course of the whole season. We’ve been predicting a Detroit implosion for weeks, and the Cowboys are just the team to keep the Lions out of the end-zone in Dallas on Monday Night Football. We wouldn’t put any money on the Lions.
Green Bay Packers8 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-7 (+100)
Moneyline
-300
Over/Under
Over 43 (-105), Under 43 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
57%
Postseason Prospectus
After a terrible four-game losing streak, the Green Bay Packers turned around and immediately ripped off a four-game win streak. The Packers are hot as a pistol, and saw their chances to win the division go up by an entire third. Aaron Rodgers now has the opportunity to play his team into the playoffs, and with two straight wins against division opponents the Packers can take the NFC North.
Gambling Advice
We believe that the Packers have the will to win in Lambeau Field and will take this game from the Minnesota Vikings, but we don’t like any of the opportunities to gamble on it. NFC North games in December in the cold weather are generally close, so we don’t like the ATS bet, and the moneyline odds are not favorable. Also, with two solid defenses the game could be low scoring, but with Aaron Rodgers involved and with the Packers rushing for over 200 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Bears, there could also potentially be 5 touchdowns scored and 400 yards of total offense. We don’t advise putting any money on this matchup.
Minnesota Vikings7 – 7
Week 15 Matchup
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+7 (-120)
Moneyline
+250
Over/Under
Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
3%
Postseason Prospectus
The Vikings had lost too many division games during the early part of the regular season to be legitimate contenders for the playoffs in such a tight division, and with an embarrassing, 4-touchdown home loss last week against the Colts, their playoff goose is as good as cooked.
Gambling Advice
We like the Packers to win in this matchup despite Adrian Peterson playing in his second game back, and don’t find a sure enough value in either the ATS spoiler or the over/under. We don’t advise putting any money on the Vikings in this matchup.
Chicago Bears3 – 11
Week 15 Matchup
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+3 (-100)
Moneyline
+150
Over/Under
Over 45.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110))
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The bright spot on the Bears’ miserable season is the relatively promising play of quarterback Matt Barkley, but their playoff hopes died out months ago.
Gambling Advice
The Redskins still have a puncher’s chance at making the playoffs, so it’s possible that they will be fired up. But in the miserable cold of Soldier Field in December, this game could go in any direction. We don’t feel confident about any of these bets, but if the Bears’ moneyline slid above 2-to-1 we might consider taking the value.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons9 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-2.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-140
Over/Under
Over 52 (-110), Under 52 (-110)
Chances of Winning Division
77%
Postseason Prospectus
Somehow, despite the fact that the Falcons won and the Buccaneers lost in Week 15, the odds of either of these teams to win the division remained essentially unchanged. The Falcons have been playing for their season each and every week.
Gambling Advice
The Carolina Panthers made some noise last week on Monday Night Football against the Washington Redskins, announcing on national television that they shouldn’t be taken lightly. We have a hard time believing that the Falcons offensive line has what it takes to handle the Carolina pass rush, and we don’t trust Matty Ice to come through in the clutch. Stay away from putting money on the Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints, 4:25 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+3 (-120)
Moneyline
+130
Over/Under
Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
24%
Postseason Prospectus
The Buccaneers certainly showed how young of a team they are on Sunday Night Football in Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys. With the offensive line falling apart near the end of the game and Jameis Winston letting his emotions get the better of him and head-butting a Dallas player, the gambling public may have lost faith in the Bucs’ ability to win out and make the playoffs this year.
Gambling Advice
If we had gotten these same odds a week ago for Tampa Bay, we would have felt extremely confident to jump all over the Bucs against the spread and moneyline, as well as to take the over in this matchup (given that the Saints have given up 28 points per game this season), but on the other hand, the Bucs got exposed last week, and in their Week 14 matchup the final score was 11-16 Buccaneers. We still like all three bets like we would have last week, but it’s not a sure thing by any means.
New Orleans Saints6 – 8
Week 15 Matchup
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints, 4:25 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-3 (+100)
Moneyline
-150
Over/Under
Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
While still not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs somehow, the Saints defense is atrocious and this team would have essentially no chance of winning a playoff game even if they somehow did manage to sneak into the postseason against all odds.
Gambling Advice
By no means do we feel confident that the Saints can win this game, but we would definitely consider the over, given that the Saints offense averages 29 points a game. However, the Buccaneers are one of only two teams to hold the 2016/17 Saints to 16 points or less, so it’s possible that this division rivalry could once again end up on the low-scoring end. Hard to say.
Carolina Panthers6 – 8
Week 15 Matchup
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+2.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+120
Over/Under
Over 52 (-110), Under 52 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
The Panthers are out of the playoff race, even if they’re somehow not mathematically eliminated. While they came out fighting against the Redskins on Monday Night Football, we feel that this was simply one of the last gasps of a team whose playoff hopes died weeks ago.
Gambling Advice
This game has all the makings of a high-powered blowout, but is too unpredictable to gamble on, in our book. The over in this game would feel a lot more comfortable placed on a 6-point teaser, perhaps combined with the under for Packers/Vikings.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys12 – 2
Week 15 Matchup
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 EST Monday, 12/26/16
Spread
-7 (-115)
Moneyline
-302
Over/Under
Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
Chances of First Round Playoff Bye
97%
Postseason Prospectus
The Cowboys have not yet locked up the division or the first round playoff bye – the Giants are too close behind. But they would clinch both with a win this Monday Night and will likely come out and play hard in order to do so.
Gambling Advice
The Cowboys quieted all of the doubters last week on Sunday Night Football by dominating the Buccaneers on defense. Last week was their third straight prime-time game – 5th on the season – making this Monday Night Football matchup their fourth in a row. We like the Cowboys moneyline against the fraudulent Lions, though the rest of the gambling public does as well so the value is not great. We don’t feel confident in the ‘boys ability to cover a touchdown spread, though, this late in the season against a playoff contender.
New York Giants10 – 4
Week 15 Matchup
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles, 8:25 EST Saturday, 12/22/16
Spread
-3 (-105)
Moneyline
-150
Over/Under
Over 41.5 (-110), Under 41.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
>99%
Postseason Prospectus
The Giants have essentially clinched a playoff spot, though it’s not 100% certain just yet. This is just the kind of sneaky good Giants team that has slunk into the playoffs several times over the past 10 years and ended up stealing two Super Bowls from under everyone’s noses, so we will definitely be monitoring this team closely as they head into the postseason.
Gambling Advice
We like the Giants to take care of business against their division rival, particularly with the Eagles playing such terrible football lately. We advise taking the Giants against the spread and moneyline, and frankly we’re surprised that the odds are so favorable.
Washington Redskins7 – 6 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-3 (-120)
Moneyline
-170
Over/Under
Over 45.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
25%
Postseason Prospectus
Washington seriously hurt their chances of securing a Wild Card spot in the playoffs with a bad loss against the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football in Week 15. While they still have a fighting chance, the fact that Fat Rob was held to only 8 yards against Carolina does not bode well for the Redskins’ ability to win out and fight for a playoff bid.
Gambling Advice
We don’t trust the Redskins at all on a short week traveling to one of the coldest outdoor stadiums in the league against a surprisingly talented and hungry (albeit 3-win) Bears team. Stay as far away as you possibly can from Washington this week.
Philadelphia Eagles5 – 9
Week 15 Matchup
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles, 8:25 EST Saturday, 12/22/16
Spread
+3 (-110)
Moneyline
+130
Over/Under
Over/Under:Over 41.5 (-110), Under 41.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs:
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The Giants’ defense is coming off of two performances where it held the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions to 7 and 6 points, respectively. If the G-Men can pull that off back-to-back against those two teams, then we can only imagine how much the Eagles will struggle to score points in this matchup. We strongly advise pounding the under, for one of our best bets of the week.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks9 – 4 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-8 (-105)
Moneyline
-410
Over/Under
Over 43 (-115), Under 43 (-105)
Chances of First Round Playoff Bye
81%
Postseason Prospectus
The Seahawks bounced back strongly against the division rival Rams on a short week after getting clobbered by the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field, greatly improving their chances of holding down a first-round bye. All signs point to this team rumbling into the playoffs with a fighting chance of making a run, though offense line woes continue to plague them.
Gambling Advice
The “mini-bye week” of a Thursday game followed by a Saturday game will certainly help the Seahawks get a little healthier, and while the Cardinals are very unpredictable we feel very confident in the Seahawks’ ability to pull off the bid for a perfect 8-0 record at home. We’re not nearly as confident that they will win by more than 8 points, however, so we’d advise avoiding the ATS bet.
Arizona Cardinals5 – 8 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 EST Thursday, 12/24/16
Spread
+8 (-115)
Moneyline
-375
Over/Under
Over 43 (-115), Under 43 (-105)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
It’s official: the team that went 13-3 and scored the second-most points in the league in 2015/16 has now been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with two games left in 2016/17. The Cardinals regression this year is one of the most unexpected storylines of the season.
Gambling Advice
The Cardinals have already hurt football fans enough over the past few weeks by essentially gifting Tom Brady a new weapon by cutting Michael Floyd – don’t let Arizona do any more damage by putting money on them against a clearly superior Seahawks team.
Los Angeles Rams4 – 10
Week 15 Matchup
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 EST Thursday, 12/24/16
Spread
+3.5 (-105)
Moneyline
+165
Over/Under
Over 40 (-110), Under 40 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
There’s a little bit of value in taking the Rams moneyline and against the spread, purely because there are even odds or slightly better in both bets and this terrible game is a complete toss-up and could go either way. But on the other hand, this terrible game is a toss-up and could go either way, so you should probably stay away.
San Francisco 49ers1 – 13
Week 15 Matchup
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 EST Thursday, 12/24/16
Spread
-3.5 (-115)
Moneyline
-185
Over/Under
Over/UnderOver 40 (-110), Under 40 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The 49ers are an absolute mess, and we have no idea how Chip Kelly is able to continuously convince professional organizations to give him any control at all over personnel decisions.
Gambling Advice
There is absolutely no reason to put any money on the 49ers at all when they are not even getting even odds.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers9 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 EST Sunday, 12/25/16
Spread
-5 (-110)
Moneyline
-240
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of Winning the Division
86%
Postseason Prospectus
With both Pittsburgh and Baltimore pulling off a win in Week 16, the Steelers’ 1-game lead in the division remained intact. Their win against the Bengals also moved them up to having almost a guaranteed playoff spot, despite the fact that without a win against the Ravens this week Pittsburgh does not control its own destiny.
Gambling Advice
Pittsburgh looked lackluster against their very mediocre division rival the Cincinnati Bengals, going down 17-3 at one point before coming back to win. Particularly with unfavorable odds, we find no reason to put any money on Pittsburgh’s ability to win or cover against the Ravens.
Baltimore Ravens8 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 EST Sunday, 12/25/16
Spread
+5 (-110)
Moneyline
+200
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of Winning the Division
14%
Postseason Prospectus
The Ravens’ playoff hopes were dealt a serious blow with their loss to the Patriots two games ago, and they have not been able to recover. The Ravens’ only chance to control their own destiny is to win in Pittsburgh this week, and even then they’ll need to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs.
Gambling Advice
We feel relatively strongly that this game could go either way, so feel free to take the better value with the Ravens moneyline at 2-to-1 and the Ravens ATS as a hedge bet. We also like the under in this matchup, with the strong history of these two defensive rivals playing each other close.
Cincinnati Bengals5 – 8 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans, 8:25 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+100
Over/Under
Over 41 (-110), Under 41 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
With an astonishing, ugly comeback loss against the division rival Steelers last week, after being up by two touchdowns, the Cincinnati Bengals were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week. This will be the first time since drafting Andy Dalton and A. J. Green in 2011 that the Bengals have not made the playoffs.
Gambling Advice
The Bengals frankly look more interested in hurting the opposing team’s players than they do in winning football games. Even though we would like the Bengals to win this game, it’s more because we think the Texans are due for a choke, and with even odds for both moneyline and against the spread there’s little value to be found in betting the Bengals.
Cleveland Browns0 – 14
Week 15 Matchup
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+6 (-110)
Moneyline
+225
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The only way Cleveland makes the playoffs in 2016/17 is with the Cavaliers.
Gambling Advice
Don’t get sucked into the Ponzi scheme that is betting the Browns. It’s not worth it.

AFC South

Houston Texans8 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans, 8:25 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-120
Over/Under
Over 41 (-110), Under 41 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
56%
Postseason Prospectus
The sloppiest division in the NFL got even sloppier last week, and the division leader has yet to emerge through 15 weeks of play. The only thing that’s official about the AFC South is that there will not be a wild card team from this division, so the Texans will need to take care of business at home if they want to make the playoffs. It looks like the division will be decided in Week 17 when the Texans go to Tennessee and take on the Titans.
Gambling Advice
We have been saying for almost two months now that we have more faith in the Titans to win the division than in the Texans, and the fact that we do not even have confidence in them to take care of business against a sub-.500 team makes us unenthusiastic about their chances in the playoffs. It’s actually possible that benching the 72-million-dollar man might actually improve the team’s overall performance, and yet we still wouldn’t advise laying any money on the Texans in this matchup.
Tennessee Titans8 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-5 (-110)
Moneyline
-220
Over/Under
Over 44 (-105), Under 44 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
42%
Postseason Prospectus
The Titans moved much closer to securing a playoff berth with back-to-back wins against two AFC West teams, including a surprise comeback victory over the Chiefs. The Titans are riding their first 3-game win streak of the 2016/17 season, and will look to keep rolling against the division rival Jaguars, who just fired head coach Gus Bradley after last week’s game.
Gambling Advice
It’s hard to tell whether the Tennessee Titans are surging or if their catching opposing teams at their worst moments. Going against the two-win Jacksonville Jaguars won’t give us an opportunity to test this, though, and we like the Titans to clean up against their division opponent. Consider pounding the Titans’ moneyline if you want to bet on them to win the AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts7 – 7
Week 15 Matchup
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders, 4:05 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+4 (-115)
Moneyline
+155
Over/Under
Over 53 (-110), Under 53 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
3%
Postseason Prospectus
The Colts are all but out of playoff contention, but demonstrated with their 4-touchdown win over the Lions last week that they’re still an exciting team to watch.
Gambling Advice
The Colts are one of the most unpredictable teams in the league in 2016/17, and we don’t find good enough value in their odds this week to consider taking them on the road against Oakland.
Jacksonville Jaguars2 – 12
Week 15 Matchup
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+5 (-110)
Moneyline
+190
Over/Under
Over 44 (-105), Under 44 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Offseason Prospectus
The offseason in Jacksonville became slightly more interesting simply by virtue of the fact that the team will be under new management after the firing of Gus Bradley, one of the losing-est coaches in NFL history. But notice that we said “offseason” – not “postseason.” The Jaguars have been essentially out of playoff contention since October.
Gambling Advice
There’s an argument to be made that the Jaguars will be able to play their division rival Tennessee Titans close at home, but there’s also an argument to be made that the Titans are much better than the Texans (whom the Jags almost beat last week), and that this game is a stay-away.

AFC East

New England Patriots12 – 2
Week 15 Matchup
New York Jets @ New England Patriots, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-17 (-115)
Moneyline
-1429
Over/Under
Over 44 (-105), Under 44 (-115)
Chances of First Round Playoff Bye
100%
Postseason Prospectus
The Pats have officially locked up the first-round bye, and are now playing only for the luxury of having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With a win and a Raiders loss, they’re able to secure that this week. As always with Bill Belichick, don’t expect the Pats to take their foot off the gas anytime soon.
Gambling Advice
The Patriots’ defense showed up last week against the hapless Broncos, and it’s possible that they are continuing to surge as they head towards the postseason. It’s also possible that the Broncos’ offense was more to blame. Either way, it’s inconsequential: with odds this astronomical, even against the terrible New York Jets, there’s zero value to be found in taking the Patriots.
Miami Dolphins9 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+165
Over/Under
Over 42 (-110), Under 42 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
55% (up 28%)
Postseason Prospectus
The Dolphins improved their chances of getting an AFC Wild Card spot for the second week in a row with a big win over the Jets last week on Saturday Night. If they don’t win out, though, there’s little chance for them to make the playoffs, so they’d better hope the Pats will be resting their starters in their Week 17 matchup. Given Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s track record in Week 17 matchups, we wouldn’t bet on it.
Gambling Advice
We like the value of the Dolphins against the spread and moneyline in this matchup, though it’s very difficult to say with certainty how this divisional game will actually turn out.
Buffalo Bills7 – 7
Week 15 Matchup
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-185
Over/Under
Over 42 (-110), Under 42 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
1%
Postseason Prospectus
The Bills are all but eliminated from playoff contention, and there’s little to report about this team.
Gambling Advice
Without favorable odds, we don’t see any reason to bet on the Bills in this matchup.
New York Jets4 – 10
Week 15 Matchup
New York Jets @ New England Patriots, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
+17 (-105)
Moneyline
+850
Over/Under
Over 44 (-105), Under 44 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
Playoff dreams for the city of New York are in the hands of the Giants at this point.
Gambling Advice
Spoiler odds are intriguing, but we don’t trust the Jets as far as we can throw them. Avoid the urge to gamble on either Bryce Petty or Ryan Fitzpatrick going against Tom Brady.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs10 – 4
Week 15 Matchup
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30 EST Sunday, 12/25/16
Spread
-3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-185
Over/Under
Over 37.5 (-110), Under 37.5 (-110)
Chances of Winning Division
43%
Postseason Prospectus
Despite the fact that the Chiefs ended up losing to the Titans, they are nonetheless essentially guaranteed a playoff spot. At this point, they are playing to take the division from the Oakland Raiders, and have a fighting chance to do so.
Gambling Advice
The Chief’s inability to score a single point against the Tennessee Titans in the second half of their matchup last Sunday does not inspire confidence as they head towards the postseason. The strength of their defense and special teams is consistently alluring, but how many times does the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith need to fail in the playoffs before the gambling public realizes that you cannot win in December and beyond without a multidimensional offense. We love the under in this matchup, but would not advise betting on either team to win.
Oakland Raiders11 – 3
Week 15 Matchup
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders, 4:05 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-4 (-105)
Moneyline
-213
Over/Under
Over 53 (-110), Under 53 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
56%
Postseason Prospectus
Postseason Prospectus:The Raiders are one of the four teams to have clinched a playoff spot, and are now playing to win the division and gain a higher seed.
Gambling Advice
We’re relatively confident that the Raiders’ identity has begun to unravel over the last few games, but a return home against a tough, playoff-irrelevant team could be the spark they need to get back on track. There’s little value in these odds, though, so even though we like the Raiders to win, we don’t really recommend putting money on this matchup.
Denver Broncos8 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs, 8:30 EST Sunday, 12/25/16
Spread
+3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+165
Over/Under
Over 37.5 (-110), Under 37.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
17%
Postseason Prospectus

With a surprising loss against the Titans followed by an unsurprising loss against the Patriots, the Broncos have very nearly lost their opportunity to make the playoffs, and have the lowest chances to make the playoffs of any of the 17 remaining playoff-relevant teams

Gambling Advice
We don’t trust the Broncos offense against the Chiefs, and it has more to do with the offensive line and the lack of running backs than it does with the competence of Trevor Siemian. We definitely like the under in this matchup, but do not recommend putting money on the Broncos.
San Diego Chargers5 – 9
Week 15 Matchup
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns, 1:00 EST Saturday, 12/24/16
Spread
-6 (-110)
Moneyline
-265
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus

San Diego’s owner is reportedly decided on moving the team to Los Angeles, and being out of the playoffs would enable them to start the move that much earlier.

Gambling Advice
We think the Chargers will win this game, but don’t trust Philip Rivers nearly enough to advise substantiating that opinion with real dollars.
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