Golden Globes Betting: Is Gary Oldman a Lock for Best Actor in 2018?

By Kristen Hickling
Published on January 05, 2018
75th Golden Globe Awards Betting

The Academy Awards is the most highly-anticipated awards show on an annual basis, but the awards season actually kicks off with the Golden Globes, which will be handed out on Sunday, January 7, 2018. Seth Meyers has been tabbed to host the show for the first time after Ricky Gervais and Jimmy Fallon handled the duties in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Official nominees for the awards were officially unveiled back on December 11, even before some of the films nominated were released in theaters. The Post, for example, earned 6 nominations despite not opening in theaters until December 22.

While there were a fair number of in 2017, there are actually quite a few high-quality films drawing plenty of praise from critics and the general movie-going public alike. The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird, Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, The Greatest Showman and I, Tonya each received at least 3 nominations for various Golden Globes.

Which nominees will emerge victorious, and which will leave the show disappointed? The Golden Globes typically serve as something of a preview to the Oscars, so what happens on Sunday may well give us an indication into which films and actors/actresses will succeed at the Academy Awards on March 4.

Let’s dive into a few of the most important categories and try to predict the winners.

Who Will Win Best Actor – Drama?

  • Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) -350
  • Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name) +400
  • Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) +1000
  • Tom Hanks (The Post) +1200
  • Denzel Washington (Roman J Israel Esq) +1600

The Best Actor – Drama category features 4 monster names within the industry…and Timothee Chalamet. Chalamet is a 22-year-old American actor that actually played a major role in 2 of the most-nominated films of 2017. He played Kyle Scheible in Lady Bird, but his Best Actor nomination came for his portrayal of Elio Perlman in Call Me by Your Name.

The other 4 nominees – Gary Oldman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Hanks and Denzel Washington – have combined to win 9 Golden Globes. Oldman actually hasn’t won one in the past, and this is his first nomination. Oldman has previously blasted the Golden Globes for being a “television ratings vehicle rather than a celebration of art, “ though he did say he was “amazed, flattered and very proud” of his nomination. Oldman has previously called for a boycott of the awards, though one would imagine his tune has changed with this nomination.

It also sounds likely that Oldman will take home the award this year. Oldman, who typically rocks a mustache and looks to keep himself in fairly good shape, underwent a dramatic transformation in order to portray Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Oldman does an amazing job acting as the stocky, surly ex-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

At -350, Oldman is easily the heaviest favorite to win among the 5 categories listed here. Daniel Day-Lewis, who is regarded by many to be the world’s greatest living actor, is also generating some buzz for Phantom Thread, which is allegedly set to be his . You can never count Day-Lewis out of a race like this, but he does feel like too much of a longshot here at +1000.

There’s probably no reason to get cute with this.
Best Actor – Drama is Oldman’s to lose at this point.

Who Will Win Best Actress – Drama?

  • Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) +110
  • Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) +140
  • Meryl Streep (The Post) +500
  • Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game) +1200
  • Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World) +1600

While Oldman looks like a clear winner for Best Actor, the Best Actress – Drama category looks quite a bit more wide open. Some of the films represented in the Best Actress category aren’t necessarily household names, as is the case with Best Actor. For example, when is the last time you saw a television ad for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri? Exactly.

While you may not have heard of the film, you have probably heard of its lead actress, Frances McDormand. McDormand has previously earned Golden Globe nominations for films like Almost Famous, Fargo and Burn After Reading. While her nomination this year is her 7th overall, McDormand has only won a Golden Globe once in the past. She won a Golden Globe in 1993 for the film Short Cuts.

Other contenders are Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep, Jessica Chastain and Michelle Williams. Streep makes for an excellent value bet at +500, because it’s Meryl Streep. I’m pretty sure there’s a rule in Hollywood that says Streep is guaranteed to win any and all Best Actress nominations. So, if you’re looking for an undervalued contender, you can do a lot worse than Streep for her role in The Post alongside Tom Hanks.

Williams is the biggest longshot on the board, but these awards tend to be fairly unpredictable, especially when there is no heavy favorite. She’s the lead actress in All the Money in the World, which was the movie that originally starred Kevin Spacey as lead actor before he was replaced by Christopher Plummer amid sexual harassment allegations. Williams has won 1 Golden Globe in the past as Best Actress -Musical/Comedy for her role in My Week with Marilyn. Williams is another solid value play.

McDormand is presumably listed as the favorite for a reason, but it’s always tough to pick against Meryl Streep.

If you’re looking for safety, bet on McDormand.
If you want a risk with a bigger payoff, go Streep.

Who Will Win Best Director?

  • Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) -150
  • Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) +150
  • Steven Spielberg (The Post) +1000
  • Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) +1200
  • Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World) +2200

With so many highly-anticipated movies getting released this past winter, it’s easy to forget how much buzz Dunkirk generated upon its release back in July of last summer. The latest from director Christopher Nolan was a monster at the box office that more than quintupled its budget of about $100 million. The World War II flick was very well received and will be among those vying for Best Picture honors at the Oscars in a couple of months.

Nolan’s films have been for several Golden Globes in the past, though he’s still never won one. It’s been a while, though, as Nolan hasn’t been represented at the Golden Globes since Inception in 2010. Inception was nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and Best Screenplay, while Nolan was nominated for Best Director. He was beaten out by David Fincher, who directed The Social Network.

Dunkirk represents Nolan’s best chance to finally break through and win one. He’ll have to beat out some big names, though. Guillermo del Toro is likely the next-best candidate to win for The Shape of Water, though that film hasn’t generated as much buzz domestically as it has internationally.

This award looks like Nolan’s to lose.

You can get pretty good value on del Toro, but the
smart money is on Nolan to win for the first time.

Who Will Win Best Motion Picture – Drama?

  • The Post +180
  • The Shape of Water +200
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri +350
  • Dunkirk +400
  • Call Me by Your Name +800

Moonlight came in as a heavy favorite to win this award last year, and it did just that. While everybody knew that was going to happen, there is no clear frontrunner to take home best drama film in 2018.

The Post got a ton of hype prior to its release, but it’s been buried at the box office by the likes of Star Wars and Jumanji. The Post ranked just 24th at the box office over New Year’s weekend after ranking 20th the weekend prior. While it hasn’t exactly been raking in the cash at theaters, it’s still garnered plenty of critical acclaim.

The Shape of Water looks like a nice pick to win. +200 brings favorable profit potential, and it has all the makings of a Best Picture winner. While it doesn’t feature some of the big names that other films do (like The Post), The Shape of Water combines classic elements of romance and monsters in a way we haven’t seen much in the past.

Dunkirk was an early favorite here, but it seems to have fallen by the wayside way down at +400. You can take a flier bet on it if you’re feeling frisky, but its candidacy has clearly taken a hit as other films have hit theaters.

Go with The Shape of Water here.

Who Will Win Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy?

  • Lady Bird -250
  • Get Out +275
  • The Disaster Artist +1000
  • I Tonya +1600
  • The Greatest Showman +2000

Get Out was another movie that drew heaps of praise once it was released, but that was so long ago that you may have forgotten it even came out in 2017. It was released way back in February of last year. It’s a little hard to believe it’s listed as a comedy given the films racial overtones, but such is life.

Get Out won a number of critics’ awards, which could be an indication that the film will also be rewarded with a Golden Globe. There has been a trend of winners faring well in the Golden Globes in the past, though Vegas seems to think Lady Bird is the movie to beat.

Lady Bird, a coming-of-age type drama/comedy, checks in as the fairly heavy favorite at -250. Saoirse Ronan is likely to win Best Actress – Musical/Comedy for her portrayal of Christine “Lady Bird” McPHerson, and the film is understandably leading the Best Picture charge, as well.

Get Out is looking more and more like a solid semi-sleeper to win this.

The profit potential here greatly outweighs that of Lady Bird,
so hop on the Get Out train at +275.
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