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Free Predictions for the CS:GO ECS Season 4 Finals on December 15th

By Sam Welch
Published on December 14, 2017
CSGO Championship Series

The will be wrapping up soon, and there is excitement abounding. After a year of amazing games and tight plays, the Esports Championship Series is looking to crown a champion. Four teams from North America are set to duke it out against four teams from Europe over this weekend, with the quarterfinals beginning this weekend. The event will be wrought with fanfare, as many Counter-Strike and esports fans will tune in

Of course, where there are esports fans, there is esports betting. All major esports betting websites will have their books open on Friday, with odds already set for the tournament. In the interest of information, here are a few of my predictions for the first round of the tournament, and how I would bet.

Group A

Two matches are set for both Group A and Group B. Currently it seems as though Group B will be the more interesting group to watch. Many esports betting websites have the odds stacked heavily against them, which shows little faith in anyone in the group.

Game 1: Fnatic vs. Luminosity Gaming

This match seems pretty set in stone. If you believe in the old adage that history repeats itself, you’ll know the safe bet is on Fnatic. The past four times these two teams have met on a major stage, Fnatic has wiped the floor with Luminosity Gaming – Luminosity has only taken two wins in the eight games they’ve played. Recent history shows the same pattern. While Luminosity has won more than a few tournaments after qualifying for the ECS finals in September, it seems that Fnatic is on a winning streak recently.

The Odds

Of course, odds are set to reflect these findings. They’re 2/5 for Fnatic to win, or 3/4 with a – 3.5 map handicap. Conversely, Luminosity is 91/50 to win, with a 49/50 +3.5 map handicap.

The Bet

On this game, I would easily take Fnatic to win with the handicap. The history behind the match so clearly favors them that it would be imprudent to bet otherwise. While it would make a great story for Luminosity Gaming to win, it wouldn’t make a great bet. The team worked hard to get here, but they are always one step behind Fnatic.

Game 2: OpTic Gaming vs. Mousesports

Nearing their second year of competitive Counter-Strike, OpTic Gaming has made a splash on the scene. Having won their spot in the ECS finals in late November, the team seems to be heavily preparing for the tournament. They’ve only entered one other tournament since their qualification, where they took 6th after a loss to Fnatic.

Mousesports are in a similar boat. Fresh off of a second place finish at DreamHack Winter 2017, it will be interesting to see how the team reacts. It may be disheartening for them heading into another tournament like the one they just lost, but in the past they’ve been shown to bounce back after a second place finish and take a tournament down.

The Odds

Mousesports are favored to win at 7/10 odds, or at 43/50 at a -2.5 handicap. The handicaps are even, as OpTic Gaming matches at a +2.5 43/50 handicap, but they are only 21/20 to win.

The Bet

If I were betting on this match, I would take OpTic Gaming. Despite Mousesports’ history with winning after a second place finish, I expect OpTic to pull something out of their sleeve. The team is clearly doing heavy preparation for the ECS Finals, and with Mousesports as their only known competitor, they will likely know the team’s entire strategy.

Group B

Group B is practically the main event for the weekend, and they have a lot of exciting matches lined up for the quarterfinals. Four prestigious teams make for four close games, so betting here gets a little more difficult.

Game 1: Cloud9 vs. Astralis

Cloud9 needs no introduction, so instead, here’s a list of all of the Counter-Strike tournaments their team has won this year:

  • iBUYPOWER Invitational 2017 – Spring
  • Subaru Invitational 2017
  • ESL One: New York 2017 – North American Qualifier
  • America Minors Championship – Krakow 2017
  • ECS Season 3 – North America
  • DreamHack Denver 2017
  • WESG 2017 USA Qualifier
  • iBUYPOWER Masters 2017
  • ECS Season 4 – North America
  • CyberPowerPC Extreme Gaming Series – Winter 2017 Invitational

Astralis is no stranger to the top. However, their resume this year isn’t quite as good. A win over FaZe Clan early in the year got them off to a good start, but their results have been middling at best since then. Oddly, the two teams have only met at a major tournament once before, where Cloud9 swept Astralis 2-0.

The Odds

Most places have neither team favored heavily in this matchup. Odds are 97/100 for Cloud9 and 39/50 for Astralis, with a 2.5 map handicap favoring Cloud9.

The Bet

On this match, I would have to take the bet on Cloud9. While I enjoy an underdog story, I simply cannot see Astralis walking away with the win. However, I would not take the handicap. I would expect this match to go long and to the last possible game. Both of these teams thrive when the heat is on, and it certainly will be this weekend.

Game 2: FaZe Clan vs. Team Liquid

Much like Cloud9, there isn’t much to say about FaZe Clan, other than that they are one of the most winning teams in the history of esports. Having entered 23 major tournaments this year, their worst finish was 15th at PGL Major Krakow. The team is riding a wave of wins into this weekend, and it will likely take them far.

What makes things interesting, though, is that nearly the same is true of Team Liquid. After a shaky 2016, Team Liquid has regrouped to earn five first place finishes and an additional five finals conversion this year. Team Liquid looks incredibly strong heading into the weekend as well, but the matchup may cause some issues.

The Odds

Odds are set a 3/10 for FaZe to win, or 43/50 with a –3.5 handicap. Team Liquid again matches the handicap, but rounds things out with 47/20 odds to win.

The Bet

Again, it would be beautiful to write the story of how a crumbling Team Liquid came back from a set of major disappointments to take down the ECS Season 4 Finals…but I don’t expect to do that. Despite their remarkable results, Team Liquid has still had one major thorn in their side: FaZe Clan. FaZe are up 5-0 in games against Team Liquid since September, spelling certain doom for Team Liquid. In this bet, I would even take the handicap. Unfortunately for Team Liquid, history suggests they won’t take a single game.

The Rest of the Event

While I can’t predict the weekend with certainty, there are a few more bets to place. To wrap up quickly, I’m expecting Cloud9 to meet with Fnatic in the finals and take home a W. For those counting, that means I predict:

  • Cloud9 will win outright.
  • Fnatic will reach the finals.
  • The winner will be from North America.
  • And the winner will be from Group B.
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