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English Premier League Betting Picks for October 20th – October 22nd

By Jerry Summer
Published on October 18, 2018
English Premier League Betting Picks

I honestly hate the international breaks. Club soccer is so much better. It’s such a relief once the English Premier League is back.

Unfortunately, there will be another pause for games between the national teams next month, but we will have to live with that.

It’s now time to focus on the next round of matches and see what the best EPL betting sites have to offer.

I feel there are some exciting opportunities out there, so here are my free English Premier League predictions and betting picks for this weekend.

Cardiff City – Fulham

Here are the main betting options for this English Premier League match.

Cardiff City to Win2.43
Draw3.20
Fulham City2.89
Over 2.50 Goals1.85
Under 2.50 Goals1.98

The start of the English Premier League season has been rough for both of these teams, and it seems they will be involved in the relegation battle. In a sense, the tough schedule so far hasn’t helped, but both teams have a bunch of problems.

This is the reason the bookies see this game as a close one. Fulham has shown a lot of potential, but the home advantage is the reason why Cardiff is the slight favorite.

However, I don’t think that evaluation is correct, because the visitors seem like a tough match-up style-wise. You will see what I mean below.

As for the other mainstream market, I feel it makes sense. Many would probably expect to see a lower line for under/over goals, but both teams have a leaky defense. At the same time, they have shown some attacking potential recently, so there could be some goals.

Cardiff City

I’m probably getting a bit repetitive, but Cardiff City looks doomed this season. The side has lost its five games in the English Premier League. Despite showing some resistance against teams like Spurs and Arsenal, it hasn’t been pretty.

If there is something that could be highlighted as a positive, it’s the work rate of the team. The players and the fans seem to be united. They know it will be a mountain to climb, but they are giving everything to win points so far.

This is the reason why there is still a glimmer of hope, and after all, it’s so early in the season. The problem is, Cardiff City doesn’t have much else to offer.

The spirit of the team does help against sides of the same quality, though, as the only points won so far came against clean sheets versus Newcastle and Huddersfield.

The problem is that Cardiff City has managed to find the net only four times this season.

One of the few goals scored by Cardiff came in the trashing at the hands of Chelsea, and two more were scored against an Arsenal team that is still learning how to defend under Unai Emery.

It’s not looking good for the Welsh side, but they will be facing the worst defense in the league against Fulham, which is probably a glimmer of hope. The big question is if Cardiff has the attacking potential to take full advantage of the problems in Fulham’s defense.

They are mostly related to counters and short passing, which is hardly Cardiff’s biggest threat. On top of that, the Welsh side is extremely inefficient. The show that the team has created only nine big chances so far in the season and missed eight of them.

If that continues against Fulham, I don’t think the home side has a chance to win this match.

Fulham

I must admit that I expected more from Fulham, as the side is full of potential and players that probably should be playing in bigger clubs. Still, there were a bunch of new transfers, and the team is coming from the Championship, so a period of adaptation will be required.

Fulham can’t afford it to go for too long, though, as the team is struggling for points and close to the relegation zone. The biggest issue certainly is the defense, as the club from London has conceded 21 goals so far in the campaign.

No other team has a worse defense than Fulham.

The good news is that the attack is working in many of the games. If you consider how bad Cardiff City is at the back, I simply can’t expect anything other than plenty of chances for Fulham.

While the hosts should be somewhat capable of containing the aerial threat of Aleksandar Mitrovic, the likes of and Schurrle will be tormenting them on the ground. The big question is which team scores first.

If Fulham manages to take the lead, I feel that Cardiff will have to open up a bit, and the visitors could punish that.

Betting Pick and Prediction

 At first glance, this game should be very close. Both teams have a terrible defense and are struggling for points. While I can see where this is coming from, I don’t think that most people have analyzed the styles of both teams enough.

For a start, Fulham struggles mostly against teams that can pass the ball well, which can’t be said about Cardiff City. Furthermore, the visitors have all kinds of offensive weapons in their arsenal and should be able to put the defense of the Welsh side to all sorts of tests.

At least some of them should be able to open the door for Fulham, and I feel that the visitors are the slight favorite in this match, as opposed to the odds that suggest the opposite.

I usually pick the safer option in games like this, but I will be “greedy” this time.

Since I feel that the hosts will go behind and get picked apart after that, I will go for the straight Fulham win. BetOnline offers this option at the healthy price of 2.89.

The more conservative among you will probably prefer to back Fulham +0.25 Asian handicap, which is priced at 1.78. After all, it will bring half a win, even if the game is tied at the end.

Since I expect the visitors to dominate this match and win with a scoreline like 3-1 or something similar, I will back Fulham.

PICKFulham to Win2.89

West Ham – Tottenham

Here are the main betting odds for this EPL match.

West Ham to Win4.00
Draw3.60
Tottenham to Win1.84
Over 2.75 Goals1.84
Under 2.75 Goals1.99

I honestly can’t understand why Tottenham is such a favorite in this match. If there is one team other than Arsenal that hates Spurs, that’s West Ham.

The Hammers are always pushing hard when the time comes, the crowd is extremely hostile, and the performance of both sides since the start of the season suggests that it will be hard for Tottenham once again.

Of course, if you look at the points exclusively, Spurs are much better. However, they don’t tell the whole story, as you will see in my analysis below.

If you are interested in the goals market, I should say that I don’t see any value here. The bookies got it right, I think, because this fixture often leads to a solid number of goals.

West Ham

West Ham started the season inconsistently, which is the reason the team sits in 15th, with only seven points from the games so far. And yet, the schedule included games against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Everton.

You could argue that there aren’t many EPL clubs that would’ve been in a different position after such a fixture list. In fact, the Hammers have actually performed well in most of those games.

The team created a ton of chances but missed them against Arsenal, which was a sign that the team has a lot of potential. The performance was even better when West Ham drew against Chelsea and should have won.

The Hammers were then victorious against both Everton away from home and Manchester United.

At the end of the day, West Ham did well to pick up some points against teams that will likely finish in the top half of the table at the end of the campaign.

The biggest concern is the defense of the team, but the disciplined approach displayed against Manchester United and Chelsea shows that West Ham can certainly protect the goal well. Especially when the Hammers are working hard and adopt a more conservative approach.

The midfielders form a second line of the defense and don’t leave any space for the opponent. I suspect that this is how Pellegrini will send his team against Spurs as well. This is the most logical scenario, considering how Tottenham is having some difficulties up front.

At the same time, the attacking line of West Ham has the quality to hurt the opponent on the counter. Marko Arnautovic is the man of the moment, but the other forwards are dangerous as well. One of them is the new signing Felipe Anderson, who’s .

I feel that West Ham will put up a strong display once again and could very well get something from this match.

Tottenham Hotspur

If you look at the numbers, the start of the season looks solid for Tottenham. The team is only two points behind the leaders and has managed to win six of the first eight games.

However, the kind fixture list and the inability of some of the opponents to take advantage of some mistakes by Spurs can’t hide the fact that the team is far from its best. Many blame the lack of transfers in the summer for the somewhat slow start, but this was not because of the stadium.

I don’t think the reason matters that much, but the fact is that Spurs are struggling to an extent.

The defense has been leaky, and every decent team so far has managed to find the net against Tottenham.

Considering the potent front line of West Ham, the Hammers certainly can make Tottenham pay for any mistake at the back. Honestly speaking, I don’t think that Spurs can keep a clean sheet unless they score a couple early on and kill the intensity of the match.

Considering their attacking performance so far, I don’t think we can expect that. Even the talismanic captain Harry Kane looks below par, and the side has been counting mostly on bursts of individual quality up front.

The cohesion from previous seasons simply isn’t there. This wasn’t the end of the world against the likes of Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Brighton, but I feel that West Ham is a completely different animal. Especially if you add the derby factor to the whole evaluation of this match.

Betting Pick and Prediction

By this point of this preview, it’s kind of obvious that I expect a much tighter game than the odds suggest. The price of 1.78 for Tottenham to win suggests a probability of 56% or so. I feel the real one is much closer to the 50% point, or it’s even below that.

In my opinion, this is a close match, and West Ham could even get all three points. The price for that to happen is 4.00, and the more adventurous among you should certainly consider it.

And still, I’m inclined to pick something else. The Asian handicap is set at +0.75 goals for West Ham, and the odds are 1.81.

That’s insane because your wager will win both in a case of a draw or victory of the Hammers, AND you get half of your stake back if they lose with a difference of one goal.

My prediction for the final score will be 1-1, but I won’t be surprised if it ends 2-1 in favor of the home team.

PICKWest Ham +0.75 Asian Handicap1.81

Arsenal – Leicester City

This is the final game of today’s post, so let’s take a look at the odds first.

Arsenal to Win1.53
Draw4.20
Leicester City to Win5.60
Over 3.25 Goals2.05
Under 3.25 Goals1.80

Despite some issues at the back, it’s only logical to see Arsenal as the huge favorite in this game.

The Gooners have won nine games in a row in all competition, so they must be doing something right. At the same time, Leicester is having a decent time overall, but the side has ridden its luck a couple of times this season already.

I’m not sure what to say about the over/under goals market, to be honest. The line probably seems a bit high, but looking at the form of players like Lacazette, Aubameyang, and even Welbeck, it’s hard to argue that Arsenal is more than capable of finding the net.

The defense is still leaky, though, so the line of 3.25 goals probably makes sense. Let’s take a deeper look.

Arsenal

Plenty of Arsenal supporters are buzzing right now because the team is improving. The start of the season was tough, but that’s always going to be the case against Manchester City and Chelsea.

The bigger concerns came when the Gunners were actually struggling to perform well in their next games.

At the same time, Arsenal simply kept grinding results and collecting points. The team has managed to win seven games in a row in the English Premier League and nine in all competitions.

While the start of this streak was built on luck and some bad misses from the opponents, that’s no longer the case.

Arsenal is playing better by the minute, and the match against Fulham was the best under Unai Emery so far.

The Gunners managed to put five goals past the Cottagers in the last EPL match and defended rather well for most of the time.

There were a couple of mistakes that came from passing the ball too much in risky spots, but that’s about that. The presence of Lucas Torreira has helped that a lot, so I expect the Uruguayan to start once again.

The biggest question is who gets in the starting lineup up front. Mesut Ozil is now fit to , but many argue that the more direct Arsenal style against Fulham can’t be replicated with the German on the pitch.

At the same time, Aaron Ramsey and Aubameyang had a blast from the bench and will have a strong claim for a starting spot.

You can’t remove Lacazette based on his current form, while Welbeck, Mkhitaryan, and Iwobi will be feeling that they deserve to keep their place on the team.

I don’t think that any Arsenal fan or Emery will be disappointed with having such a problem, but the manager has to find the right balance to keep everyone happy and playing like they are right now.

Leicester City

Leicester City is firmly sitting in the middle of the English Premier League table with four losses and four wins so far. I think this is a somewhat fair reflection of the team’s potential, although two of the wins were a bit lucky.

The team mostly relies on the familiar direct approach up front. One of the reasons is the performance of the young James Maddison. The lad has been exceptional since arriving from Norwich this summer, which has .

Maddison is pulling the strings in the middle of the park, while the team can hit strongly on the counter.

The big question is if Leicester will be able to force enough mistakes from Arsenal.

While the Gunners are struggling with the demand of Emery to play the ball from the back, their defensive lapses tend to happen against teams that press Arsenal high up the pitch.

I don’t expect that from Leicester, as the side prefers a more conservative approach. This is why I don’t think that Leicester will have that many chances to punish the opponent.

Not only that, but Leicester is conceding a lot of chances. Although not all of their opponents so far have managed to make the best of their opportunities, Arsenal is good at exactly that this season. This is why I can easily see the Foxes concede more than once in this match.

Betting Picks and Prediction

 I simply can’t ignore Arsenal’s flying form right now. While it was somewhat lucky at the start, the team is now full of confidence and performing better.

The defense is finally starting to tick, while the attack of the Gunners is absolutely devastating right now.

I can’t see anything but a win against a decent but inconsistent and leaky Leicester side. The price of 1.53 for that to happen does contain value in my opinion, but there is a better option out there. Arsenal -1 Asian handicap is priced at 1.84.

If the Gunners win this game, you can’t lose the bet. At the same time, if they win with two or more goals, as I expect, the bet is won. Since I can easily see a final score of 3-1 for Arsenal, or similar, this is my final betting pick.

PICKArsenal-1.00 AH1.84

Final Words

I’m not yet done with my free English Premier League betting picks for the week! I will add a separate preview of the big game between Chelsea and Manchester United, so stay tuned.

In the meantime, feel free to share your own betting picks in the comments section below.

Good luck!

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English Premier League Betting Picks for October 20th – October 22nd
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English Premier League Betting Picks for October 20th – October 22nd
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The players are returning from the latest international soccer break and the EPL is back in action. Here's my latest batch of weekly EPL betting picks.
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