English Premier League Betting Picks for November 3rd – November 4th
Published on November 01, 2018
The start of the English Premier League has been rather bizarre.
I don’t think I’ve seen many seasons in which there are five teams with so many points after the first ten games. It’s certainly unusual and probably worth a separate post soon.
There are other interesting stories in the league, though – it’s not only about the leaders. Some clubs are showing immense progress with limited resources, while others are struggling hard.
I’ve always thought that ten games is a good sample size that can give you a solid idea what to expect from each team.
With that said, let’s take a deeper look at the next round, most notably the odds provided by the top EPL betting sites on the market, and my free betting picks for the weekend.
Here are the main betting markets for this EPL clash.
I’m not sure if I agree with the odds for either market here. For a start, Bournemouth has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season so far, performing well both at home and away. They face a Manchester United side that has gained some momentum recently but still has loads of problems.
I honestly don’t think that the visitors should be the favorite here, as the game should be much closer than the odds suggest. I understand that Jose has the much better players, but Eddie Howe has built a team that relies on hard work and sublime cohesion.
The goals market is somewhat weird as well. Both sides are good at scoring but have been exposed at times, especially Manchester United. I feel that the prices for the over/under 2.75 goals line should be reversed, at least.
I’m not sure what’s the best bet here, but I sense that there is an opportunity to find some value, so let’s take a deeper look at what both teams can offer.
I’ve said it multiple times already this season, but I love Eddie Howe and his work.
Bournemouth currently sits in sixth place on the English Premier League table and has twenty points after ten games. That’s only six less than leaders Manchester City and Liverpool!
The most impressive aspect of the small difference between Bournemouth and the best teams is that Howe and his boys completely deserve their current position.
The main reason why the side is doing so well is the attack. the line well, but the system employed by the manager and the players’ ability to follow his instructions are behind Bournemouth’s success.
Sides that keep the possession as well as Bournemouth does struggle to be direct and create chances. That’s not the case here, as Bournemouth already has 19 goals, despite sitting second in the table of big chances missed.
Furthermore, the team has found the net twice or more in seven of its ten games so far in the English Premier League. That’s a fantastic achievement and a clear sign of how deadly Bournemouth can be.
This is especially true when it comes to the home games of the team, as the side has yet to lose a match in front of its own supporters.
It’s safe to say that Howe and his team will be confident going into the game against Manchester United.
The only concern for the manager is the defense. It is still not on the same level as the attack of the team. Bournemouth is capable of conceding, sometimes multiple times, for various reasons. For a start, the desire to play from the back leads to errors every now and then, which is something that teams with fast forwards can exploit.
The other problem is that Bournemouth sometimes cracks under direct pressure, as we saw against Burnley in the league. The good news is that the side will face a Manchester United team that is relying mostly on the individual brilliance on some of its players, instead of a well-drilled display up front.
A couple of weeks ago, Manchester United and Jose Mourinho were in a desperate situation. They were just beaten by West Ham in the English Premier League, knocked out by Derby County from the League Cup, and failed to beat a struggling Valencia side at home in the Champions League.
The results have since improved after a dramatic comeback 3-2 win against Newcastle, followed by a respectable draw against Chelsea away from home, and another victory against Everton.
Despite the loss against Juventus in between those games, the mood around the club is now much better. The big question is if the problems are truly solved.
Manchester United is always going to win some games with a squad worth hundreds of millions of pounds. There are too many world-class players on this team that can provide the spark when required, but I’m not convinced that the season has turned around just yet.
I feel that the improvement is down to the individual brilliance of some players like Anthony Martial and some change in the mentality of the team.
I’m not 100% sure this means the players are behind Mourinho, though. I simply feel it’s more the case of them wanting to keep their own reputation intact.
The problems at the back are still there, as the Red Devils conceded five times in their last three league games. The defense is not good enough and is leaking a lot of chances, which is not great news against a team that’s scoring for fun.
On top of that, Mourinho is still trying to figure out what to do with the center forward position. The bad form of Lukaku is the reason he tried Rashford, but after playing on the wings for so long and the dip in confidence, the young Englishman doesn’t seem ready to deliver, either.
I feel he will get there if Jose trusts him for long enough, but it will take at least a couple more games.
The good news for Manchester United is that Bournemouth is not exactly the best team at the back, which is the reason I expect a close game here.
I still have huge doubts about my final betting pick for this match. I honestly feel that Bournemouth should be able to take something from this game.
BetOnline offers the price of 1.83 for the hosts +0.5 Asian handicap, which is a solid option in my mind.
Another one that raises my interest is the over 2.75 goals at 1.94.
As it stands, Man United can’t keep a clean sheet, so I expect Bournemouth to punish them, probably more than once.
The Red Devils might be weak at the back, but they have some firepower up front. I can definitely see them scoring as well, so three goals or more should be easy to cover.
A tough choice here, but I feel that the goals market is safer, and I could even see a classic like 2-2 at the end. It feels like the safer route, so this is my final pick for Bournemouth-Manchester United.
Let’s start with the mainstream betting markets for this EPL clash.
I feel the odds for the match result market are spot on here.
Wolverhampton is a tough nut to crack, especially at home, but Tottenham is still the better team. Spurs have managed to win against sides of this caliber so far, even if their performance hasn’t been exactly convincing.
The market that seems far more interesting is the under/over goals. I feel that the line should probably be set at 2.25 goals. The games of Wolverhampton have seen the least number of goals from all teams in the league, and Tottenham is not that far behind.
It’s going to be a tight contest, and both sides will be relying on their defense. This is why I am a bit surprised by the line, but let’s take a closer look before jumping to conclusions.
Many expected Wolverhampton to be the best team from the newcomers in the English Premier League, and they were right.
Both Cardiff City and Fulham are struggling badly, while Nuno Santo and his boys look like a solid mid-table side already.
The key to success comes from the style adopted by the manager. His team defends well and keeps a lot of the ball. This works equally well against stronger and weaker opponents.
Wolverhampton has managed to contain the two Manchester clubs to a 1-1 draw so far during the season, which is a testimony to the resilience of this team. It is not afraid to play according to the structure of the manager, even against top-quality opposition.
This is why I expect more of the same when Wolves face Tottenham. The team will keep a lot of the ball and defend fiercely.
Despite a recent loss against Watford, the spirit surrounding the club is exceptional. The supporters are excited, the players are pushing hard to follow the plan of the manager, and the owners have promised to keep investing in the club.
I would go on to actually say that Wolverhampton is one of the best-run clubs in the English Premier League right now. Under such circumstances, it’s no wonder that everything looks good at this point.
There is only one exception, though. The team doesn’t create enough chances, and when it does, it doesn’t convert them at a satisfying rate. As a result, Wolverhampton is struggling to score goals. This could be a serious issue against a Spurs side that can grind results.
The season feels really weird for Tottenham so far. On the bright side, Spurs are doing well in the EPL, despite their recent loss against Manchester City. This is one of the best starts in the history of the club, but there are a lot of things to worry about.
The delays with the new stadium, the failures in the Champions League, and the growing feeling that the team simply doesn’t have the resources to match the ambition of Mauricio Pochettino have led the manager to declare that he is not happy right now.
Combine that with the open position for a Real Madrid manager, and it is no wonder that there are rumors that he will leave Spurs.
After all the effort and progress in the past couple of years, he and the club have nothing to show for it, bar a couple of Champions League seasons in a row. This is why the atmosphere around Spurs is not ideal right now.
The team still has the players, and Dele Alli even recently, so all of the important members of the squad have healthy contracts. The question is if the manager will stay beyond this season.
I’m not quite sure, and I don’t think anyone is, which will cast a shadow of a doubt on the club’s future. And yet, Spurs are still a solid team. Their biggest immediate issue is the fatigue caused by the tough schedule and the injuries they faced.
After the gruesome Champions League tie, they faced Man City on Monday, and then West Ham for the
I don’t expect Spurs to be fresh against the Wolves, which leads me to think that they will rely a lot on their defense against a team that has trouble scoring.
I already mentioned that the goals market is the place I recognize a solid opportunity, and I feel there is not much else to say after analyzing both sides. I expect a tight game with not many chances for either Spurs or Wolves.
It could end up 1-0 for either side, but I will go for a rather different prediction. I feel this one is going to be a 1-1 draw. Either way, the under 2.5 goals seems tempting, so this is my final betting pick.
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I intend to add a preview for the big game between Arsenal and Liverpool and another one for the Monday night clash between Huddersfield and Fulham.
In the meantime, feel free to add your own predictions and thoughts about the upcoming games in the comments below.