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Betting on the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Winner

By Adam Haynes
Published on July 11, 2019

Come on, I know you’re thinking of betting on the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner.

Maybe you fancy teen activist Greta Thunberg to claim the award. Or you might consider Trump’s recent trip to North Korea as grounds for a claim to the prize.

Otherwise, why else would you be reading this? Curiosity? Hmmm. Maybe.

Like many other betting enthusiasts, I tend to come across some intriguing markets that are outside of my usual domain. I know plenty of others who feel the same way.

For example, my brother in law is a boxing fan who scours entertainment betting sites looking for some respite from the “sweet science.” The same applies to a football-crazy buddy of mine who can’t help but check out politics betting markets.

Ergo, when it comes to things like the Nobel Peace Prize, you shouldn’t let your lack of knowledge on the award put you off. I mean, it’s not like you’ve never heard of the world-famous award. It’s just… well, I guess it wouldn’t be your first port of call for a wager.

But, I will say, there is often profit to be made in niche markets such as these.

2019’s version of the award sees the likes of Thunberg and Trump go head to head, with a few other notable names also on the list.

New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, is nominated, as are the likes of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Doctors Without Borders.

Now, if you fancy any of the above to win the prize, you’re going to want to see some odds, right?

Of course, you are.

Latest Nobel Peace Prize Winner Odds 2019

The odds below come courtesy of Betway. Now, these odds are subject to change, so just keep that in mind.

Also, you can find a more extensive list of potential Nobel Peace Prize winners by heading over to the site. I’m going to focus on the top five potential nominees, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the winner will not be a betting underdog.

Greta Thunberg-125
Angela Merkel+800
Emmanuel Macron+1000
Donald Trump+1200
Doctors Without Borders+1400
Pope Francis+1400

As you can see, Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg is some way out in front at -125. I’ll cover who she is and why she is considered the favorite to pick up the prize this year.

You know what? I’ll do the same for all six of the above.

Now, of course, you are going to recognize some of the names. But as for the others, you might want to know a little more about what makes them so worthy of this award.

While I’m at it, I think it would be a good idea to take a closer look at the Nobel Peace Prize and how it works.

I can almost sense the tension…

What Is the Nobel Peace Prize?

“Well, it’s a prize. And it has something to do with peace…”

Anything more to add to that, fictitious person that I invented for the purpose of a lazy quote? No? Okay, I’ll take over from here.

Now, I’m not going to bore you to death with the ins and outs of the world’s most famous award for peace. You’ll be getting the short version of the story behind the award before we look at the juicy stuff.

So, the Nobel Peace Prize is the most respected award of its kind in the world. There are over 300 peace prizes on our little green planet, but this is kind of like the Super Bowl or the WBC heavyweight title when compared to the rest. In other words, it’s a big deal.

The reason for its reverence lies in its seasoned history and the fact that it is associated with the Nobel awards in general.

As an award for the “preservation of peace” that is presented by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, this is not something the average Joe can vote for. The ladies and gentlemen on the panel are responsible for that.

Most of the winners of the award over the years have tended to be considered as “peacemakers” in a Western, left-of-center definition. In other words, there are political influences behind who gets the prize.

As you can imagine, this has caused major controversy in the past. There have been some high-profile names that have not earned the award in the 117 years it has been running. For example, Mahatma Gandhi never won it. Surprised?

On the other hand, previous winners such as Barack Obama, The European Union, Chinese activist Liu Xiaobo, and Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi’s awards have been disputed by many.

The Nobel Peace Prize Process

Right, so this is how it works.

The Norwegian Parliament selects the Norwegian Nobel Committee, who then chooses the Nobel Peace Prize laureate (winner).

Sounds simple, right? Well, there is a little more to it than that.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will request invites from “very important people” to provide nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize. Below is a list of who is “qualified” to submit nominations.

  • National assembly/government/Inter-Parliamentary Union members
  • Permanent Court of Arbitration and the International Court of Justice at the Hague members
  • Institut de Droit International members
  • University professors of history, social sciences, philosophy, law, and theology
  • University presidents and directors of peace research and international affairs institutes
  • Former winners, which also includes those who are on the board of institutions that have won the prize in the past
  • Members or former members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee
  • Former permanent advisers to the Norwegian Nobel Institute

Nominations must be received by the Committee by the beginning of February, in most cases.

Then, once nominations are received by the Nobel Committee, a shortlist is drawn up. The final list is then considered by permanent advisers to the Nobel Institute, which looks to come to a unanimous decision on the winner.

The aim is to have the winner declared by September, but this isn’t always possible.

Then, on December 10 of each year, the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in Norway.

Bored yet? I’m not, I have to say. It’s pretty interesting. Sure, it’s not Sunday Night Football or anything, but it’s… different.

Anyway, let’s get down to the good stuff. I’m going to run through the top six in the eyes of the bookies and then give you my pick on who will win the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

Greta Thunberg -125

As the inspiration of countless climate change protests across the globe, it is no surprise to see Greta Thunberg as the favorite to win the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

The bookies appear convinced that Thurnberg, the 16-year-old who attained global fame due to a school strike against climate change, is one step above the rest.

If she does win, she will become the youngest ever Nobel laureate. The current holder of that title is Pakistani activist Malala Yousafzai, who won the award at just 17 in 2014.

At odds of -125, it appears Thunberg is the best bet to take the prize.

With climate change dominating the global political sphere in 2019, it seems almost set up for the youngster to win. Her impassioned speech at Westminster earlier this year saw bookies slash her odds to win the award.

When you think about it, Thunberg winning the Nobel Peace Prize would send out a loud message to the rest of the world when it comes to changing habits on the environment. The script writes itself.

Will Thunberg prove the bookmakers right?

Angela Merkel +800

Angela Merkel has been touted as a potential winner of this award for the past few years.

The German chancellor has been at the forefront of Europe’s pro-refugee stance and has earned her fair share of praise as a result. That said, she has also been heavily criticized for those same policies.

As the face of German politics since 2005, Merkel is one of the most recognizable faces in the world.

Now, I can’t really think of much that Merkel has done over the course of the past couple of years to deserve being one of the favorites for this award. As such, I would probably look elsewhere for better value.

Emmanuel Macron +1000

French President Emmanuel Macron is not too far off Merkel here.

He is a polarizing figure in his own country but one of the most recognizable names in European politics.

Despite this, I don’t believe he has done anything to merit any special consideration for this prize.

Donald Trump +1200

President Trump deserves to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Well, that is if Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is to be believed.

The 45th President of the United States announced the award during his trip to Japan in July, claiming that Abe had presented him with “the most beautiful copy of a five-page letter that he sent to the people who give out a thing called the Nobel Prize.”

Japan’s Asahi newspaper ran a story which claimed that Trump requested that Shinzo Abe put him forward for the award. However, as the Nobel Committee policy is that nominees cannot be disclosed for 50 years, the Japanese premier was tight-lipped on the matter.

Whether you love him or hate him, Trump has seemingly done enough — at least on paper — to earn his place among the rest.

As someone who is apolitical in situations like these, I’m not interested in getting into a debate regarding Trump’s eligibility for the award, but you have to consider him a frontrunner.

Some think his historic trip to meet Kim Jong-Un in North Korea makes him a decent shot, anyway.

At +1200, Trump is hardly a no-hoper. The bookies believe that he has a chance of winning the prestigious award, even if there is a core group of people that would lose their minds if that happened.

Doctors Without Borders +1400

International human rights group Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières is also considered to be in with a decent shout of picking up the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

At odds of +1400, they are by no means the favorite.

The group is no stranger to this award, having picked it up in 1999.

Should Doctors Without Borders win the award in 2019, it would mark the first time an organization has been awarded the prize since… well, 2017 (the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons).

If you are looking for some kind of pattern to how the panel selects their winners, there is not really one to speak of.

Last year, the award was granted to Nadia Murad and Denis Mukwege. To find the previous joint winners of this prize, you have to go back to 2011.

I’m not sure Doctors Without Borders will be seen as the leading candidate this year, and the bookmakers appear to agree.

Pope Francis +1400

As the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis can expect to be nominated for the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

Once again, it seems that there is no distinct reason for the Pontiff being on this list other than that he is a big name.

While many Catholics around the world would love to see the Argentine holy man earn this accolade, it is unlikely that he will win it this year.

For those “living on a prayer,” I think they will need divine intervention to see Pope Francis awarded the prize.

Final Thoughts

So, there you have it.

According to the bookmakers, these are the six potential nominees for the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

At this stage, it is difficult to look past the favorite, Greta Thunberg, at -125.

The 16-year-old climate change activist is by far the leading candidate for the award and is certainly my pick to pick up the award on December 10.

I can’t see anyone else coming close.

Now, if you’re looking for other bets involving the likes of President Trump…

Scrap that. Trump is one of a kind.

If you are looking for other bets involving Donald Trump — and Greta Thunberg — check out my Time Person of the Year betting guide.

Can Thunberg or Trump do a double?

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