Best Bet and DFS Advice for Giants vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 6
By Noah Davis
| October 9, 2019
It feels like the previous NFL week just got started, but here we go with a new one arriving on Thursday night. This time, it’s the defending champions New England Patriots who will host Daniel Jones and the New York Giants.
The Pats enter as understandable home favorites, as they’re undefeated (5-0) and facing an inferior foe in the 2-3 G-Men. In fact, the top NFL betting websites see a considerable gap here, with just about every sportsbook favoring New England by 16.5 points or more.
Bettors have to ask themselves if that’s a spread the Pats can cover, while daily fantasy players need to figure out who makes sense for the DraftKings NFL DFS showdown contests.
I’ll tackle both angles in this week’s Thursday Night Football preview. My goal is to find the single best bet for the Giants vs. Patriots along with the best DFS lineup.
Giants vs. Patriots Week 6 Betting Odds
While New England is a massive favorite yet again this week, there might be some logic to New York beating such a steep spread. That, or bettors should at least go hunting a bit to make sure they’re getting the best pricing available online.
You can’t bet on the Patriots to win straight up in week 6. You just can’t. You’re taking on way too much risk for zero upside. Seriously, MyBookie.ag offers one of the better prices for this game and $100 brings you back $9.09.
Want to get really wacky? Bet $1,000 for a whopping $90 back in your pocket.
The risk outweighs the reward by a mile. Instead of wasting your time with that wager, you need to look at the point spread or this total. Of course, if you love the Giants in this one, that +725 price tag at Sportsbetting.ag and BetOnline is pretty tough to top.
As far as Thursday Night Football point spread betting goes, you’ll stick with Sportsbetting.ag or BetOnline to go with New England to cover. BetNow ranks second with their 17-point spread, while Bovada is offering the same line and odds.
On the other side, MyBookie and Xbet is actually where you’ll want to be if you like Big Blue to beat this huge point spread.
The Total is also in play here. It was sitting at 44 virtually everywhere, but BetNow has dropped it to 43 and Bovada is beating the competition with 42.5. That’s the place to go for the over, while you’ll want to head over to any of the other sites for the under.
Giants vs. Patriots Top TNF Wager
You have a lot of different options for this week 6 TNF clash between the Giants and the Patriots. Usually, I go with just one bet I love, but I actually have two I like a lot. My secondary bet is going to be the under in this one.
The over is just 1-4 in New England games so far this year, while it’s not a whole lot better (2-3) for New York. The Pats have been very stingy defensively, allowing under seven points per game on the entire season.
To be fair, New England hasn’t really faced anyone yet. More specifically, the Pats have allowed two offensive scores all year. Last week’s 65-yard run by a backup was all flukey, too.
New England’s defense isn’t to be messed with. Bill Belichick is notorious for taking out your best chess piece. That may end up being Saquon Barkley if he can suit up, or it may be rookie quarterback, Daniel Jones.
One way or another, this game probably isn’t going to be that explosive.
Tom Brady and co. haven’t looked that amazing offensively, but they also aren’t walking into a tough matchup. New York has given up the sixth most rushing yards so far in 2019 and knowing New England, it’s likely they’ll keep this game slow and methodical.
The under feels good here (bet anywhere the total is 44 or higher), but I actually do love the G-Men to beat this spread. It’s just too big. Daniel Jones has flashed dual threat ability, while the possible return of the aforementioned Barkley could make this offense a lot more dynamic.
Daniel Jones can keep New England honest due to his rushing ability, while he’s also now got a full stable of passing options with Golden Tate returning this past weekend from suspension.
New England wins, but they’ll lean on their running game to do it. Besides, the Pats are just 3-2 against the spread in 2019 and they can’t keep exceeding expectations when facing these crazy lines. Give me the points with New York at MyBookie.ag.
New York Giants (+17.5)
Week 6 Thursday Night Football DFS Picks
Hopefully, my top bet for the Patriots vs. Giants game helps you out this week. If you want to dive into the NFL DFS showdown scene, though, I can help you out there as well.
I hit on some nice daily fantasy football picks last week, with Cooper Kupp crushing in the Captain slot and guys like Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, and Tyler Lockett all working out nicely.
That NFL DFS lineup wasn’t perfect, but it could have nudged you in the right direction.
Betting advice aside, let’s take a look at this game from a fantasy perspective with my favorite Thursday Night Football DFS lineup.
CAPTAIN: Sony Michel – New England Patriots ($11.4k)
FLEX: Tom Brady – New England Patriots ($11.8k)
FLEX: New England Patriots Defense ($6.2k)
FLEX: Josh Gordon – New England Patriots ($9k)
FLEX: Golden Tate – New York Giants ($7k)
FLEX: Brandon Bolden – New England Patriots ($1.4k)
I’m presently operating under the assumption that Saquon Barkley won’t play in this game. If he’s in, I’d definitely considering throwing him in some NFL DFS lineups. Just know that Bill Belichick will key in on him and is aware of how good he is.
The Giants have given up the seventh most rushing yards in 2019. Dalvin Cook just dropped 123 yards on them last week. In a low-scoring game where the Pats are heavily favored, I have to think New England controls things on the ground.
That has me looking at Michel as the top play on this slate. He offers very little PPR upside, but he’s touched the ball over 15 times in four of five games. He’s also scored in three of five games and the Giants have allowed several rushing scores already this year.
Michel is looking like a stud in this spot, but that doesn’t mean I don’t want exposure to New England’s passing game. Tom Brady and Josh Gordon will sound off eventually, and this could be the night they do it.
New York ranks 26th against fantasy quarterbacks and 29th against wide receivers. They’ve specifically given up the big play a lot this year, as Adam Thielen hauled in a 44-yard catch last week and they’ve allowed gains of 51, 55, 62, 45, and 39 elsewhere.
This is not a tough matchup for New England by any means. I do think they keep the pace slow and run the ball a lot, but their dominance there will still allow them to spring some big plays in the passing game.
That could just as well have you try Brady or Gordon in the Captain slot, and I suggest doing so if mass entering on the TNF showdown slate.
Brandon Bolden gets me all of the pieces I want and is super cheap. He has a small role, so make sure Rex Burkhead is out for this game. Bolden scored last week and registered 11 fantasy points. If you think New England comes close to covering here, he could end up being fairly late in this one.
You need to roster at least one Giants player. Judging by my Patriots D play (they’ve allowed two offensive scores all year), you can assume I’m not super excited about using New York players. I still think the pace of this game and spread favor the Giants from a betting perspective, though.
The one Giants option I’ll go to is Golden Tate. He’ll be used all over as Sterling Shepard won’t suit up for this game and New England has had some issues stopping slot receivers in underneath routes this year. Evan Engram could be out, too, which only supports my Tate play.
There are countless NFL DFS strategies to consider on this slate from a lineup building perspective. I think the Pats win here and will find success running the ball. Using Daniel Jones and too many Giants players feels like a mistake.
Either way, this isn’t the spot to bet against the Pats. New York’s insane +725 moneyline is enough to make me stop and think, but I just don’t see how they’ll realistically pull this off.
The trick will be picking the right bet in this game, though, while New England games can also be difficult to peg from a DFS perspective. Hopefully, my favorite bet and top NFL DFS picks find you well and you can profit from TNF this week.
If you want more help with betting on the NFL in week six, head to our NFL betting headquarters, where you’ll find updated odds for the top NFL betting markets, expert picks, and more.