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Assessing the Early Betting Lines for Week 6 of the 2018 NFL Season

By Noah Davis
Published on October 08, 2018
Early Lines NFL Betting Week 6

The wild and crazy 2018 NFL season took a mild break in week five. The end result for the week was still not quite what the top experts drew up, but this week felt a bit more tame across the board.

Still, that didn’t stop the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams from staying undefeated. It also didn’t keep losers like the Bills, Jets, and Cardinals out of the win column.

I took a look early last week at the week five NFL betting lines to gauge how you may want to place wagers, and I’ll readily admit I didn’t see a lot of that coming.

Going into Monday night’s game, I pieced together a mere 4-8 mark, dropping me to 37-36-2 on the young season. This included going against the Browns, Bills, Jets, and Lions – teams that I simply didn’t think had it going into last week.

It was a forgettable showing, but I stand by the value I saw when the lines opened. Let’s get a head start again as we look to see what week six has to offer at SportsBetting.ag.

All odds referenced in this post were taken from SportsBetting.ag on 10/7/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ New York Giants (+2.5) Total: 45

The Giants seem to be on the verge of imploding. Despite almost stealing a win on the road against the Panthers, this team is just too dysfunctional to trust right now.

Philly at home against a desperate Vikings team, but this is a great “get right” spot for them.

The Eagles get a small spread as the home favorite, but I’ll take whatever line is better between the point spread or the moneyline. I don’t see Carson Wentz and co. losing this game.

PICKEagles (-2.5)-120

Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Total: 43

Arizona proved me right with a big divisional win last week, but now they have to go to Minnesota to face a Vikings team riding high after a road win over the Eagles.

The Cardinals will be severely overmatched here, and Minnesota’s defense typically plays well at home. Minnesota saved their season last week, and I’ll bet they emphatically continue surging in this one in front of their home crowd.

PICKVikings (-10.5)-106

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) @ Cleveland Browns (+1) Total: 46

The Browns are a legit challenger every week now with Baker Mayfield leading the charge, while they showed yet again in week five that their defense is pretty good.

The Bolts have to travel cross-country for this AFC tilt, but they have much bigger aspirations than Cleveland right now. They’re the better team, and they can ill afford to lose further ground to the AFC West-leading Chiefs.

Cleveland will keep it tight, but in a virtual pick’em, I can’t go against LA here.

PICKChargers (-1)-115

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (+3) Total: 44

Miami showed everyone once again in week five how much of a fraud they are. After a short-lived 3-0 run, they’ve dropped two straight and are in danger of losing any remaining relevancy.

The Dolphins are at home, but that’s all they have going for them here. Chicago should be well rested after a bye, and nobody wants to face this defense. The Bears as a 3-point favorite feels like an easy call.

PICKBears (-3)-106

Carolina Panthers (+2) @ Washington Redskins (-2) Total: N/A

The Panthers have proven to be a less imposing team on the road so far this year, so anytime you can get a solid price against them with a home team, I’m at least listening.

At the time of this writing, we don’t know yet how Washington fared in New Orleans, but they seem to have the defensive fortitude and offensive balance to be a lot better than people thought they’d be.

The Redskins at home as a 2-point winner feels like a solid try at this -110 price.

PICKRedskins (-2)-110

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) @ New York Jets (-2.5) Total: 45.4

New York shocked me last week. Not only did Sam Darnold rip off three scores, but running back Isaiah Crowell busted out for an insane 219 yards on the ground.

That was all impressive, but I’m still not sold on the Jets at all. They’re at home here, but Indy has been in virtually every game this year, and I find it hard to believe Andrew Luck allows them to slide to 1-5 in this spot.

I don’t like the point spread here, though. Due to the risk you’re assuming with backing the Colts, just take their moneyline and run with it.

PICKColts to WinN/A

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) Total: 54.5 (-110)

The Steelers have responded nicely when they’ve had their backs against the wall. Ideally, you back them at home, but this week, they look like a fairly attractive bet on the road against the rival Bengals.

Cincinnati has admittedly been quite good in 2018, but they’re not immune to getting tripped up. They may very well be the class of the AFC North these days, but this is a tough one to write the Steelers off in.

Pittsburgh’s dynamic and explosive offense is easy to buy at this +2.5 point spread, but much like the Colts, I see no reason not to just aim higher with the straight-up win.

PICKSteelers to WinN/A

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) Total: 57.5

The Bucs were , which handed them a second straight loss and officially ended the Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment. As they shift full-time back to Jameis Winston, I’m not sold that this new era is much more inspiring.

Atlanta got housed in Pittsburgh last week but has otherwise been one of the better 1-4 squads I have ever seen. At home against a familiar opponent and with their season on the line, I’m not sure I can defy them here.

The Falcons are a good pick ATS or straight up, but this game has fireworks written all over it. The over is rather ambitious, but I have to shoot for it in this one.

PICKOver (57.5)-110

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

The Bills got another random win last week, and for the life of me, I cannot figure this team out. Josh Allen remains an enigma, but he largely still has accuracy and awareness issues.

Buffalo is problematic just because Allen does have upside, and their defense can be good. However, the Texans need this one, and they’re at home. There isn’t a line yet, but I’ll take the Texans to defend their turf.

PICKTexans to WinN/A

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys

This is actually one where I find myself pausing for a second, just because the ‘Boys are notoriously good at home, and Ezekiel Elliott can dictate the tempo of any game when he’s feeling it.

Jacksonville’s key defensive weakness is their run defense, too, while the Jaguars looked rather human on that side of the ball last week.

Still, the Jags appear to be the far better team in this matchup, and after their previous loss this year, they bounced back nicely. No spread is out for this one yet, but I have a hard time buying Jax dropping two in a row.

PICKJaguars to WinN/A

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders (+2.5) Total: 47.5

The Seahawks fought valiantly in week five but dropped a tight one to the undefeated Rams. That proved Seattle’s worth in my eyes, and now they get a way better draw when they take on the 1-4 Raiders in Oakland.

The Raiders have been pretty competitive for the most part during Jon Gruden’s return tour, but they fell apart last week and have still struggled to deliver complete outings.

The Seahawks are the better team at this point, so I’m going with the team that can actually defend and finish games.

PICKSeahawks (-2.5)-125

Los Angeles Rams (-7) @ Denver Broncos (+7) Total: 52.5

The Rams have scored 30+ points in every single game this year and take a daunting 5-0 mark in Denver for week six. Denver looked interesting after a nice 2-0 start but has eroded into the sorry sack unit they probably always were with three straight losses.

Beating the Broncos in Colorado isn’t exactly easy, but this Denver team seems to be losing their way. A fourth straight loss looks likely, and I’m not so sure the Rams allow this one to stay close after surviving two scares the past two weeks.

Even better, you get a cool +100 to trust in arguably the best team in the NFL. Sign me up!

PICKRams ATS (-7)+100

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Tennessee Titans (+1.5) Total: 42

The Ravens let one get away in Cleveland last week, which only added to the madness that is their actual identity. Suffice it to say, I’m not sure who they are through the first five weeks of the 2018 season.

Ditto for the Titans, who dropped a winnable game against the Bills. Neither of these teams is particularly reliable at the moment, but Baltimore’s seemingly superior defense and balanced offense gets the mild nod for me.

PICKRavens (-1.5)-110

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ New England Patriots (-3) Total: 58.5

This could be the funnest game of the week, but I’m toying with one 57+ total already and won’t shoot for two. The Chiefs head to Massachusetts with an undefeated record in tow, and few will forget how things went the last time they faced the Pats.

New England hasn’t been their dominant selves as a whole in 2018, but they sure have done as they’ve pleased over the last two weeks. With Julian Edelman back, Josh Gordon winning jump balls, and New England’s defense showing life, I’ll go out on a limb here and back the Pats.

Kansas City is a fine ATS pick, and the over isn’t a bad play here. However, KC’s streak has to run out eventually, and a road tilt against the GOAT is as good of a spot as any.

PICKPatriots to WinN/A

San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5) Total: 46.5

The last game of the week goes down at Lambeau Field, where the Packers will hope to finally piece together a complete game. Aaron Rodgers has been gimpy or slightly off for the majority of the year, while Green Bay seems to lack a true identity as a whole.

The good news is that the 49ers are bogged down by a slew of injuries, just lost to an 0-4 team, and are probably at an all-time low. The Packers aren’t bad bets ATS here, but I really don’t trust them based on everything they’ve shown us this year.

I don’t trust the Niners, either, of course. That brings me to the over, as Green Bay’s offense should put up points on these Niners, and Green Bay’s defense will probably allow this one to stay somewhat interesting.

PICKOver 46.5-110

Summary

After a pretty upside-down week, I think week six projects as a fairly straightforward betting experience. This has been a crazy season, though, so I’m not immune to interpreting spreads and overall games the wrong way.

I still hold a record above .500, and considering how this season has gone so far, I’ll take my lumps and move along.

That being said, I feel like a lot of teams are pressed into positions where they don’t have a choice but to come out with a win. Hopefully my picks help you in some manner this week. However you bet, I wish you luck!

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Assessing the Early Betting Lines for Week 6 of the 2018 NFL Season
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Assessing the Early Betting Lines for Week 6 of the 2018 NFL Season
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Taking an early look at the week six NFL lines to help bettors gain an edge. Analysis and free picks for all games on the slate.
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